My 2018 Preakness Stakes Picks

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D.S. Williamson

May 16th, 2018

The 2018 Preakness Stakes is here. Unlike most everyone else on the planet, I don't believe that Justify is a lock. In fact, I'm leaving Justify out of my exacta. I explain why, along with releasing my Top 4 in the following blog.

My 2018 Preakness Stakes Picks

1. Tenfold

Sounds crazy, right? But, before saying I have no clue what I'm talking about, hear me out. Tenfold didn't run that bad of a race when finishing 5th in the Arkansas Derby. It was only his third lifetime race. It's tough for any horse to win a graded stakes race in only his third lifetime race.

What I like about Tenfold is that he won his maiden around two turns. He came back and beat winners in an optional claiming $75,000 race. The try in the Arkansas Derby sort of makes sense. He only lost by 4.5 lengths. That means he was a part of the scramble at the end when he, Quip, Solimini, and the rest of the field was trying to catch Magnum Moon.

With any improvement, and if Justify bounces, he could win the Preakness. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won two Preakness Stakes already. I think Tenfold's got a huge shot to hand Asmussen his third.

2. Good Magic

After watching the Kentucky Derby replay for the tenth time, it's obvious to me that Good Magic wasn't cranked up enough to win the race. Had he been, he might have caught Justify. If trainer Chad Brown has Good Magic cranked up on Saturday, and there's no reason to believe he won't, Good Magic could be very difficult to beat. Justify isn't that much better than he is.

I've got him second here. I can't argue with anyone who believes he takes it.

3. Justify

Trainer Bob Baffert has never lost the Preakness with a horse that won the Kentucky Derby. Justify could be a monster. He certainly looked like one on May 5. However, he got away with any easy trip while most of his competition in the Derby had to fight for position.

Not only that, but the Preakness will be Justify's fifth race since Feb. 18. Eventually, all horses have a bad day (think American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers Stakes). I think Justify's bad day comes up on May 19.

4. Quip

I was close to picking Quip to win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday. I believe he could improve big time from his second place finish in the Arkansas Derby. But, there's a chance we've seen his best. That means he will certainly try on Saturday, but, like he often does, he'll come up short. Without improvement, he'll find it difficult to finish in the Top 3. With improvement, he could win.

No matter who you put on top on your Preakness Stakes tickets, good luck!