2019 Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool: Who Offers the Best Value?

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 22nd, 2018

If you’re planning to play Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 this weekend—and let’s face it, if you’re a Derby fan, how can you skip it?—you might also want to take a look at the lesser-known Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool that will be available this weekend only, closing at approximately 6:30 p.m. Eastern on Sunday.

As its name implies, the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool allows you to bet that a particular stallion will sire the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner. Twenty-three individual stallions plus an “all others” option are available for wagering.

Among the individual sires, #3 Candy Ride is the obvious co-favorite on the morning line thanks to the success of his sons Game Winner (a three-time Grade 1 winner with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile under his belt) and the unbeaten Vekoma (a fast winner of the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes earlier this month). But Candy Ride’s 6-1 morning line odds aren’t all that appealing—do we really want to be betting 6-1 on anything involving an unpredictable race that’s still more than five months away?

If you’re fishing for a bigger price, here are a few sires in the 15-1 or higher range that I would be tempted to consider if their odds hold up or rise higher:

#13 Pioneerof the Nile (15-1): Doesn’t 15-1 feel like a decent price for the sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah? Pioneerof the Nile’s current crop of two-year-olds already includes the promising Aurelius Maximus, who finished fourth in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I); Much Better, a stakes-placed runner from the barn of Bob Baffert; and Amino, a late-running maiden winner at Laurel Park for trainer Graham Motion. That’s a pretty solid lineup for this early stage of the Derby trail.

#16 Speightstown (50-1): With a reputation as a sprinter who sires sprinters, Speightstown is understandably expected to be a longshot in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool. But despite his reputation, his progeny have somehow compiled a 4-for-8 record going 1 ¼ miles on dirt, and he’s already sired one promising 2019 Kentucky Derby contender in Preamble, who is unbeaten in two starts with maiden and allowance wins at Churchill Downs and Keeneland. If Scat Daddy can sire a Triple Crown winner, I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think that Speightstown can sire a Derby winner.

#23 Will Take Charge (30-1): As a racehorse, Will Take Charge was a durable and consistent runner who excelled running long, and if he imparts those traits to his progeny, we could see his name in the headlines quite often during the next fifteen or twenty years. Notably, two of his best runners to date—Manny Wah and Blue Steel—will be running in Saturday’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. If one or both run well, Will Take Charge could be an appealing bet at 30-1.

Which stallions do you think offer value in the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager Pool?