2021 Lexington Stakes Tipsheet

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

April 8th, 2021

A cast of 10 sophomores will travel 1 1/16 miles in Saturday’s $200,000 Lexington S. (G2) at Keeneland. The three-year-old event is a 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series event, with 34 points (20-8-4-2) on the line for the top-four finishers.

Lexington Stakes Picks

  • #1 Noble Reflection
  • #7 Proxy
  • #2 Swiftsure
  • #9 King Fury

Lexington Stakes Wagers

  • $10 win and place on the 1
  • $5 exacta box: 1-7
  • $.50-cent trifecta part-wheel: 1 with 3,7,9 with all

Lexington Stakes Contenders

#1 NOBLE REFLECTION led throughout in a maiden dash at Oaklawn Park off the shelf and stretches out for his stakes debut on Saturday. The Baltas pupil has been fast from a pair of lifetime races, and I think that he will be the one to catch turning for home in his initial Keeneland endeavor. Castellano will guide the Liam’s Map gelding.

#2 SWIFTSURE has impressed from a pair of facile sprint wins to date for Asmussen. Talented Uncle Mo colt gives the impression of a youngster who can handle additional ground, and the dark bay looms a huge chance with improvement while picking up top gun Irad.

#3 BEZOS broke through second time out with a maiden score at Santa Anita for Baffert. The much-hyped son of Empire Maker has been training in swift fashion as of late, and it’s hard to dismiss any sophomore from this barn. Van Dyke picks up the mount.

#4 IT’S MY HOUSE aced his dirt debut in the Turf Paradise Derby in his first run since joining the Hess shedrow. However, the Anthony’s Cross colt faces a much tougher task on Saturday, and others seem more likely to me.

#5 UNBRIDLED HONOR made a belated run to finish fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his stakes bow for Pletcher. Honor Code homebred has a nice turn of foot, and he might get a fast pace to rally into, as well. Julien Leparoux will pilot the exotics contender.

#6 HOCKEY DAD finished a close third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and is proven upon dirt, turf, and synthetic surfaces. Nyquist colt draws outside of most of the major pace in the race, and he could be well-placed nearing the turn for home with Mario riding.

#7 PROXY rates as the one to beat off the strength of his solid Fair Grounds form for Stidham. Godolphin homebred has never run a poor race in his career, and he seems to have taken to the Keeneland surface following a rapid half-mile drill on Sunday. Johnnie V riding adds to the appeal.

#8 ULTIMATE BADGER comes off a late second in the Hutcheson S. in the slop for Romans, but the bay colt has yet to prove to be consistent at this stage of his development. The son of Commissioner has ability, but others are more intriguing.

#9 KING FURY makes his three-year-old debut following a solid juvenile campaign for McPeek. The well-bred son of Curlin removes the blinkers after a one-race experiment with the hood, and the colt should receive a sharp pace to make a run at following the freshening. Top-three threat will have Hernandez up.

#10 STARRININMYDREAMS has been dusted in two stakes tries in succession and draws widest in the field. The Stewart pupil would be a surprise on Saturday.