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Homeracing

2022 Kentucky Derby contenders: foaling dates and Dosage Indexes

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 5th, 2022

Kentucky Derby (G1) bettors who believe in the importance of the Dosage Index have nothing to fear in the 2022 edition of the Run for the Roses. No matter which horse they like, they'll be supporting a horse who fits the Dosage theory's Kentucky Derby criterion.

The Dosage Index is one of several mathematical data points that define Dosage, a means of analyzing pedigrees based on the stallions contained within the first four generations of bloodlines. The goal is to determine whether a horse is bred to be best as a sprinter, a miler, a classics type, or a long-winded stayer.

In the 1980s, Dosage rose to prominence as a Kentucky Derby handicapping angle due to the fact every Derby winner going back decades boasted a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower. The popularity of Dosage has waned in recent years, in no small part because eight of the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners had Dosage Index higher than 4.00, as outlined below.

YEAR
Up ArrowDown Arrow
WINNER
Up ArrowDown Arrow
FOAL DATE
Up ArrowDown Arrow
DOSAGE INDEX
Up ArrowDown Arrow
2021
MANDALOUN
18-Mar
11.00
2020
AUTHENTIC
5-May
3.00
2019
COUNTRY HOUSE
8-May
2.69
2018
JUSTIFY
28-Mar
3.00
2017
ALWAYS DREAMING
25-Feb
5.00
2016
NYQUIST
10-Mar
7.00
2015
AMERICAN PHAROAH
2-Feb
4.33
2014
CALIFORNIA CHROME
18-Feb
3.29
2013
ORB
24-Feb
3.21
2012
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER
1-Apr
2.11
2011
ANIMAL KINGDOM
20-Mar
1.67
2010
SUPER SAVER
18-Mar
3.00
2009
MINE THAT BIRD
10-May
4.33
2008
BIG BROWN
10-Apr
1.67
2007
STREET SENSE
23-Feb
2.14
2006
BARBARO
29-Apr
2.41
2005
GIACOMO
16-Feb
4.33
2004
SMARTY JONES
28-Feb
3.29
2003
FUNNY CIDE
20-Apr
1.53
2002
WAR EMBLEM
20-Feb
3.40
2001
MONARCHOS
9-Feb
1.40
2000
FUSAICHI PEGASUS
12-Apr
3.67
1999
CHARISMATIC
13-Mar
5.22
1998
REAL QUIET
7-Mar
5.33
1997
SILVER CHARM
22-Feb
1.22

The good news for 2022 is the fact every potential Kentucky Derby starter boasts a Dosage Index of 4.00 or lower, which means the theory is guaranteed to bounce back with a winner. As of Monday morning, Churchill Downs lists 23 horses under consideration for the Kentucky Derby. We've included them (and their Dosage Indexes) below.

HORSE
Up ArrowDown Arrow
FOAL DATE
Up ArrowDown Arrow
DOSAGE INDEX
Up ArrowDown Arrow
EPICENTER
29-Jan
0.60
TIZ THE BOMB
2-Feb
1.86
ETHEREAL ROAD
9-Feb
1.91
SMILE HAPPY
10-Feb
1.91
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
22-Feb
1.43
PIONEER OF MEDINA
24-Feb
3.00
SIMPLIFICATION
28-Feb
1.22
BARBER ROAD
8-Mar
3.80
CYBERKNIFE
14-Mar
1.67
HAPPY JACK
17-Mar
2.38
WHITE ABARRIO
18-Mar
3.80
ZOZOS
18-Mar
4.00
TAWNY PORT
21-Mar
4.00
ZANDON
21-Mar
2.11
MESSIER
24-Mar
3.44
BYE BYE BOBBY
1-Apr
3.57
CHARGE IT
3-Apr
3.00
RATTLE N ROLL
12-Apr
4.00
TAIBA
13-Apr
2.00
MO DONEGAL
19-Apr
3.00
SUMMER IS TOMORROW
24-Apr
2.11
RICH STRIKE
25-Apr
3.36
CROWN PRIDE
4-May
1.55

We have also listed the birth dates of the Kentucky Derby contenders and past Kentucky Derby winners, and for good reason. As can be seen in the first chart, the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners were all born between February and May. Not a single January foal has managed to visit the Run for the Roses winner's circle during the last quarter-century.

This is significant when you consider how Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Epicenter (born Jan. 29) is the expected favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. His flashy 0.60 Dosage Index might be the lowest in the prospective field, but Epicenter's early birth date hints he may have peaked during the winter/early spring. Might his younger rivals have more upside for improvement on the first Saturday in May?

Stay tuned to TwinSpires Edge for more Kentucky Derby news and notes as the first Saturday in May approaches.

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