A $32 play for the $47,415 Pick 5 carryover at Fair Grounds

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

March 14th, 2021

What: A $47,415 Pick 5 carryover.

When: Sunday, Mar. 14.

Where: Fair Grounds.

Racing results can be a bit unpredictable at Fair Grounds, where large, competitive field are par for the course. Saturday’s card featured a $12,855 carryover in the Late Pick 5 pool, but bettors were thoroughly unprepared for the chaotic results that unfolded. All five favorites were beaten, and runners starting at 3-1, 4-1, 10-1, 12-1, and 39-1 visited the winner’s circle.

Suffice to say, no winning tickets were sold on Saturday, boosting the carryover for Sunday to $47,415. Hopefully, the results to close out the weekend will be little more straightforward, because we’re putting together a $32 play counting on a pair of favored singles to get the job done at short prices.

Here’s how we’ll bet the $47,415 Pick 5 carryover:

Race 6: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

#2 Patriot’s War (9-5) is the fastest horse on paper, but he’s completely misfired in his last two starts against tougher company. The question is, did he dislike racing over turf and slop? Or is he regressing? Dropping in class can help Patriot’s War’s chances, but #1 Easy to Miss (3-1) has been competing admirably over this class level and is a clear alternative if Patriot’s War disappoints again.

Race 7: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

If there’s a reliable single in the Pick 5, it’s surely #3 Suggested (3-1). The Mark Casse trainee owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings and has been freshened since finishing second for a $50,000 tag at Kentucky Downs in September. If Suggested brings his A-game off the layoff, his rivals are likely running for second place.

Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs)

The stakes-placed #2 Taylor Avenue (4-1), the capable allowance performers #3 Thetruthisthetruth (7-2) and #4 Half Koo Koo (7-2), and the runaway maiden winner #5 Shades of Truth (5-2) have all posted competitive Brisnet Speed ratings and look pretty evenly matched. For Pick 5 purposes, we’ll use them all.

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf)

It’s tough to separate the eight entrants in this competitive turf sprint, so rather than split hairs, we’ll hit he “ALL” button and hope to catch a double-digit longshot winner.

Race 10: $12,500 Claiming (six furlongs)

We’ll end the sequence with a single. 40% of six-furlong sprints at Fair Grounds are won in gate-to-wire fashion, and the rail post wins at an excellent 19% rate, two stats stamping the speedy #1 Perfect Perigee (5-2) as the horse to beat. Perfect Perigee hasn’t fired in his last two starts against tougher company, but the son of Court Vision wired his debut for a $25,000 tag and should appreciate dropping back down in class. Don’t forget, trainer Ron Faucheux wins at a 27% in claiming races.

The Ticket

Race 6, 50-cent Pick 5: 1,2 with 3 with 2,3,4,5 with ALL with 1 ($32)

Good luck!