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A Deeper Dive Into Breeders' Cup Multi-Race Wagering Or Why the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Isn't As Wide Open As It Seems

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 28th, 2016

With its full fields and lack of winning favorites, conventional wisdom indicates that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf should be one of the most valuable races for multi-race bettors, but a look at what each multi-race wager paid versus the parlay on every all-Breeders’ Cup sequence since 2006 indicates that the Juvenile Fillies Turf is one of the worst races for these types of wagers.

Through eight editions of the Juvenile Fillies Turf (2008-2015), the race has averaged 13.375 starters with an average win mutual of $18.925 and only one favorite (Lady Eli at 2.4-to-1 in 2014 at Santa Anita Park).

And yet, of all the doubles, Pick 3s, and Pick 4s that have paid less than the parlay in the time since the Breeders’ Cup inaugurated the Juvenile Fillies Turf, no race has been a part of more of those sequences than this one.

There have been 96 doubles involving 112 Breeders’ Cup races since 2008, and 24 (25%) have paid less than the parlay. Of those 24, seven of them have involved the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

 

BC race:

Double

P3

P4

Juv Turf

5

3

1

Dirt Mile

6

3

1

Juv. F Turf

7

7

1

Distaff

4

1

1

Juv Fillies

2

3

0

F&M Turf

6

2

0

Sprint

4

5

0

Turf Sprint

1

0

0

Juvenile

0

4

0

Turf

3

2

0

FM Sprint

3

0

0

Mile

1

2

0

Classic

2

1

0

 

The chart above is listed in this year’s race order, and makes a strong case that Saturday will offer better opportunity for multi-race players than Friday, as Saturday includes the only race (the Juvenile) that has never been a part of an underlaid double as well as the only races (Turf Sprint and Filly & Mare Sprint) that have never been a part of an underlaid Pick 3.

It’s also worth noting that of 27 Pick 4s since 2006 only one has paid less than the parlay, and it occurred on Friday in 2014 when Outstrip (Juvenile Turf), Goldencents (Dirt Mile), Chriselliam (Juvenile Fillies Turf), and Beholder (Distaff) connected for a $1,615.60 $2 Pick 4 versus a $2,017.34 win parlay.

Seeing likely full fields in this year’s juvenile turf races is exciting at first, but these are races the public is rarely super fooled. I.e., the favorite percentage is low, BUT so is the chance of a bomb. Since 2011, EVERY winner of this year’s Friday’s races has been among the top half of his/her field in the wagering. I.e., the horses everyone is using are winning. Friday’s races have typically lacked a separator horse.

That said, there have been 8 doubles in which the favorite has won both races and only 2 of them have paid less than the parlay, which is the same as the overall percentage. If you like the chalk, you might be better off just hammering them than using other horses thinking you’ll catch a better payoff if you do. You might increase your chances of cashing, but you’re costing yourself value.

There have been only 2 all-chalk Pick 3s, and neither of them paid less than the parlay versus 13 overall from 93 sequences (14%). So, again, if you love Dortmund, the Juvenile Fillies Turf favorite, and Songbird then a straight ticket could give more bang for your buck then various “hedges”.

But overall, best to proceed with caution on Friday, as 8 of 37 Pick 3s on that day have paid less than the parlay—a 21.6% strike rate that’s well ahead of the overall number.

Of course, the most important thing is betting your opinion. If you feel more strongly about the Pick 4 on Friday than you do anything on Saturday, then don’t let this data discourage you but rather use it to encourage you to play your opinion strongly and not give up value chasing a bigger payout that often isn’t there. 

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