Homeracing

A longshot and a best bet on the Kentucky Oaks undercard

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

May 5th, 2017

We're not letting the rain get us down at Churchill Downs where the Kentucky Oaks card kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET. For a multi-race player like me, the 13-race card offers ample opportunities to leverage opinions across races. There are Pick 5s starting in races 3, 7, & 9 and Pick 4s in races 2, 4, 8, and 10 to go along with rolling Pick 3s and doubles and a $2 Pick 6 with $26,116 carrover that begins in race 6.

The grid above illustrates which leg of which Pick 5 or 4 each race is on Kentucky Oaks day. The race 10-11 stakes double of the Edgewood-Oaks is the most important combo of the day since it covers two Pick 5s and two pick 4s. The Edgewood is tough with boggy conditions possible, but the Oaks is more manageable with Paradise Woods looking like a standout to both me and James Scully.

My plays of the day, however, are outside that double with my best longshot coming in race 5, the La Troienne Stakes, and my best bet of the day coming in race 12, an allowance following the Kentucky Oaks.

In the La Troienne, which is the middle (3rd) leg of the early Pick 5, and the 2nd and last legs of a pair of Pick 4s, #3 Big World will be on all my tickets. She definitely benefits from the scratch of Finest City and could either be on the lead or close to it. It's a competitive group, so 10-to-1 (she won't be 20-to-1 after the scratch) on a horse who likes to win with a favorable pace set up works for me.

In race 12, which is the penultimate leg of the late Pick 5 and Pick 4, American Cleopatra will take a lot of money, and I'm going to try to beat her with #4 Friend of Liberty, who has a big win on the slop and ran OK at Churchill Downs this year. If American Cleopatra and Jenna J go at it early then Friend of Liberty figures to get the pace to run at and is worth 4-to-1.

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