A Prairie Meadows exacta: Stakes and a Pick 5 carryover in America's heartland

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Ed DeRosa

July 1st, 2016

Two of my favorite things come together tonight at Prairie Meadows: stakes at an otherwise-out-of-the-way racetrack, and a carryover in a $0.50 Pick 5 pool.

The Iowa Festival of Racing began Thursday night at the Des Moines-area racetrack and continues through Saturday afternoon. The Friday night slate includes the Iowa Distaff for older females and the Iowa Derby for three-year-olds. The stakes double goes as races 8-9 on the 10-race card with the $7,027 Pick 5 carryover covering races 6-10.

Even if you don't love the favorites it's a manageable sequence as the contenders are fairly easy to identify. That said, American Freedom in the Iowa Derby is certainly the horse most hopes will be pinned on given Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert always takes money when he ships a three-year-old, and from a Speed Rating perspective the Sir Barton Stakes winner is the only Iowa Derby entrant to eclipse the 100 mark, and he's done it twice.

Texas Chrome is certainly the most likely winner after American Freedom, so the question is whether it's worth doubling the cost of your ticket to use the other horse most likely to win. I have a slight lean toward "no" when answering that question, but the added carryover money makes using him a little worth it.

In the Iowa Distaff, Super Majesty has a huge pace edge. I'm a little nervous about her two-turn record, but she was facing better than these, and she gets weight here while shortening up a bit.

Here is how I'm betting tonight's pick 5:

Race 6, $0.50 Pick 5 part wheel

1, 4 with 1, 3, 5, 6 with 1, 4, 5, 9 with 4 with 1, 3, 6, 7 ($64)

1, 4 with 1, 3, 5, 6 with 1 with 3, 4 with 3, 7 ($16)

$80 total