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Homeracing

Analyzing the mandatory Pick 6 carryovers at Aqueduct and Turfway Park

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

December 31st, 2020

The closing day of 2020 is going to be a fun day for handicappers. Multiple high-profile Pick 6 carryovers are set to be dispersed among winning bettors.

A $183,471 Empire 6 carryover at Aqueduct is the highlight, but Turfway Park is also in the fray with a $34,414 carryover in the Single 6 pool. In addition, Turfway has a $7,112 Super Hi 5 carryover up for grabs.

Aqueduct

You’ll want to construct your tickets early, because the Empire 6 gets underway in Race 3, a maiden special weight for New York-breds with a post time of 1:46 p.m. ET. The Brisnet Speed rating par for this class level and distance is an 86, which stamps #8 Dancing Buck (5-2) as a potential single.

Trained by Michelle Nevin, Dancing Buck threw down an 87 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second over this class level and distance on grass last month. The switch to dirt is an obvious question mark, but Nevin strikes at a solid 18% rate with runners transitioning from turf to dirt, and none of Dancing Buck’s rivals appear particularly formidable. I’m willing to bet Dancing Buck’s class will win the day.

Dancing Buck isn’t the only potential single in the sequence. Race 7, a 6-furlong allowance race, features a heavy favorite in the form of #4 Letmetakethiscall (9-5). A local star with a 12-5-2-1 record at Aqueduct, Letmetakethiscall fired off a huge effort in her second start since being claimed by trainer James Ferraro, dominating a Nov. 20 allowance event over Thursday’s class level and distance. The competition was a bit easier—Letmetakethiscall was facing fellow New York-breds—but her 6 1/4-length margin of victory produced a strong 103 Brisnet Speed rating. A repeat will make Letmetakethiscall very difficult to catch.

The Empire 6 wraps up in Race 8, a $25,000 maiden claiming race for New York-breds. With 14 entries, it looks like a tough race to handicap at first glance. But then again, #3 Sweet Sneak (7-2) finished second for a $40,000 tag racing a mile at Belmont Park last month, beaten just a length after vying for command at the eighth pole. Dropping down in class and distance will make Sweet Sneak tough to beat, albeit at a short price.

Turfway Park

The Single 6 sequence begins in Race 3 (post time 4:15 p.m. ET), the only leg of the series with less than a dozen entries. Nine horses have been entered in the 6 1/2-furlong allowance sprint, though the Wesley Ward-trained duo of #4 Joker On Jack (7-2) and #7 Artemus Citylimits (5-2) appear formidable. With their contrasting running styles and proven form over synthetic tracks, they’re obvious contenders at short prices.

#9 Made in America (3-1) could potentially give the Ward trainees a fight, considering he’s a neck away from being undefeated in three starts at Turfway. But the son of Tiznow hasn’t run since March and appears destined for a wide trip from the outside draw.

The feature of the day is Race 5, the $65,000 Prairie Bayou S. held over 1 1/16 miles. It’s a tough race to decipher, but one could do worse than take a stand with #11 Set Piece (5-2). Trained by Brad Cox (a 38% winner at Turfway), Set Piece recently unleashed a terrific stretch kick to win a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Turfway, earning an impressive 107 Brisnet Late Pace rating. Wide posts have been performing well over 1 1/16 miles at Turfway, and hot jockey Joe Talamo (5-for-18, 28% so far at Turfway) has the mount.

The Single 6 concludes with Race 8, a one-mile maiden special weight in which the Super Hi 5 carryover will be up for grabs. The top contenders appear evenly matched from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, so thinking outside the box with a longshot could be the key to cashing big payoffs. #8 Teller to Sing (10-1) offers some appeal after rallying to finish second in a $40,000 maiden claiming race on Sept. 24 at Churchill Downs. The daughter of Magician comes in fresh and can factor at a fair price if she handles the switch from turf to Tapeta.

Good luck!

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