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Homeracing

Approaching the Rainbow Pick 6 backwards

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TwinSpires Staff

January 27th, 2018

By Dick Powell

The Rainbow Pick 6 will have a mandatory payoff on Sunday at Gulfstream Park. This means that there will be no consolation money taken out of the pool for the next racing day so the payoff for six of six winners will be the full 80% (100% minus 20% takeout).

With the multi-million carryover going into the event, which begins in race 7, the chance of getting a fantastic price, even with a bunch of favorites, is high. Unless you have been chasing it every day and you are part of the carryover, it becomes dead money today and should result in a negative takeout situation.  

The 20% takeout only applies to Sunday’s betting so unless more than $20 million is bet, which is unlikely, the takeout will be negated by the carryover. Rarely do we get to bet into negative takeout so the payoffs should be much higher than a parlay.

That said, I think it is reasonable for a modest player to put at least $100 into today’s pool. That gives you 500 combinations but you will be surprised how quickly your ticket cost multiplies. With the field sizes, before scratches, there are a maximum of 907,200 possible combinations so whittling it down will still be difficult. 

I am going to approach today’s Rainbow Pick 6 backwards. The last leg, race 12, has a 14-horse field going in and I will single a horse.

Ken Ramsay has been known to bet a horse or two and he is dropping PADEN down to $6,250 in his third start off the $25K claim by Mike Maker. He raced evenly in his last two starts going longer but he does show a win going short. Tyler Gaffalione, 27% riding for Maker lately, gets the mount.

So how do we get to the last race?

Race 7, the first leg, is a starter allowance going 1 mile on the turf with the rail at 84 feet. The inside three horses do not look good enough so I am going back to Maker with ULTIMATE CAUSE, Jane Cibelli’s O. K. KAY who gets Irad Ortiz back aboard, FARCICAL FELING, who overcame post 11 last out and makes her eligible here and MADAME UNO, who has been stuck at this level but has been freshened up while getting Javier Castellano back aboard.

First leg: 4,6,7,9

The second leg is a first-level allowance race for 3yo fillies going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf with no temporary rail placement. I like ANABELLA QUEEN who had a nightmare trip last out against these but still was able to get second and has the needed tactical speed. I also like Miguel Vasquez on the turf and will take a stand here with a single.

Second leg: 4

The third leg, race 9, is a bottom-level maiden claimer going 5 ½ furlongs on the main track. This one is tough and will be a spread race for me. ATTORNEY AL has raced twice, both times on the turf, and now drops way down in class for the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro who wins 32% with this dropdown. Remember, we are not claiming this horse; just betting him. GITGO broke slow in his career debut at Tampa Bay Downs against better and picks up Javier Castellano. DREAMING OF JO JO is a speedball that returns to dirt and drops in class with leading rider Luis Saez aboard. PEKIN was a good second two starts back at class and distance before running poorly in his turf debut going two turns. 

There are two first-time starters but I can only use one of them. GRAN RED is from Victor Barboza Jr., who wins 20% with his debut runners and is by good debut sire SHACKLEFORD – 14%. His dam has produced eight winners from eight foals to race including a stakes winner.

Third leg: 1,2,4,6,9

The fourth leg is another 5 ½ furlong dirt sprint but for open $6,250 fillies and mares. Don’t let the claiming tags fool you; there are some hard-knocking runners in here.

Luis Saez has been on fire lately and rides FIRST DISTINCTION. She beat this claiming level by 13 lengths here on a sloppy track last July, then was a good third in a rough trip when moved up in class off the claim. She dropped down in class but was a dull fifth off a four-month freshening in her first start off the claim by Joe Saffie, Jr. then ran well here two weeks ago from post 1 when she was involved in the early pace. 

Not trusting anyone to be a single, I am going to add others. PRINCESS KNOLL beat this claiming level handily two starts back then did nothing when moved up in class going five furlongs on the turf. LOVING VALENTINA beat this claiming level two starts back when she rallied from far back then was an even third last out. She gets a major rider and trainer upgrade in her first start off the claim. RIBERENA won four of five starts before being bumped around at the start last out and PARA VIVIR has dangerous early speed for the red-hot combination of Emisael Jaramillo and Barboza.

Fourth Leg: 2,3,5,7,8 

With a single in the last leg, I can only go five deep in this leg which is a starter optional claimer going six furlongs on the main track for 3yo fillies. STORMYMEISTER broke her maiden by six lengths first time out then tired last out on a wet track as the odds-on favorite. Barboza wins 34% first start after being beaten as the favorite and 33% with Jaramillo. LADY FREEDOM is the only starter in the field with two wins and DANCE RHYTHMS broke her maiden by nine lengths here last out when dropped down a bit in class and gets Luis Saez back.

STARCLOUD woke up when blinkers were added last year and has shown decent speed in her last three starts on the turf. That leaves up with one more horse to stay within budget and it will be THREE SOCKS ONE, who broke her maiden by ten lengths in an off-the-turf race two starts back then did nothing back on the turf. Irad Ortiz Jr. makes her a must use. 

Leg 5: 2,3,4,6,8

20-cent Rainbow 6 ticket

4,6,7,9 with 4 with 1,2,4,7,9 with 2,3,5,7,8 with 2,3,4,6,8 with 8

Total: $100

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