Homeracing

Arlington: How to bet the mandatory-payout $348,957 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 25th, 2021

The final race of the 2021 Arlington Park race meet is a big one for bettors.

The event in question is an ultra-competitive $20,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, and if you can assemble the top five finishers in a Super High 5 wager, you’ll win a share of a $348,957 carryover.

That’s right—after building steadily throughout the meet, the jackpot carryover for Arlington’s 20-cent Super High 5 is slated for a mandatory dispersal. But constructing a winning ticket won’t be easy; 14 horses (including two also-eligibles) have been entered, and even if you figure on a couple of scratches, there are still 95,040 possible outcomes to consider.

In order to play the wager on a semi-reasonable budget, we’ll have to take a stand somewhere, and our stand will be with morning-line favorite #11 Dawn’s Dancer (5-2). The daughter of Curlin is far from a lock to win, considering her 10-1-3-0 career resume includes nine straight defeats since her February 2020 debut win. But against Saturday’s field, Dawn’s Dancer seems as logical a choice as any to rely on.

A stretch runner conditioned by Christopher Davis, Dawn’s Dancer has finished second in her last two starts against allowance company at Ellis Park, missing by less than a length in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint before gaining a ton of ground to lose a one-mile event by just three-quarters of a length. Along the way, Dawn’s Dancer posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 84 and 83.

Granted, Dawn’s Dancer was beaten to fourth place in a five-furlong $20,000 allowance optional claimer at Arlington three starts back. But Dawn’s Dancer’s effort was deceptively strong—she gained 3 1/4 lengths through the final furlong to finish just a length away from victory. Dawn’s Dancer was the only filly to gain meaningful ground in a race dominated by speed horses.

Dawn’s Dancer should get a solid pace to work with in Saturday’s large field, so we’ll key her on top of all our Super High 5 tickets. Underneath, we’ll emphasize #5 Sister Ruler (12-1), #7 Juju’s Specialgirl (3-1), #9 Belle Brezing (6-1), counting on at least two to finish in the top five in order for us to cash. Sister Ruler in particular offers live longshot potential for hot trainer Michele Boyce, considering Sister Ruler’s most recent turf run saw her win the above-mentioned Arlington allowance in which Dawn’s Dancer finished fourth.

20-cent Super High 5: 11 with 5,7,9 with 5,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 ($24)
20-cent Super High 5: 11 with 5,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 5,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 ($24)
20-cent Super High 5: 11 with 5,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 5,7,9 ($24)
Total: $72

Good luck!

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