Assiniboia Downs spot plays for Aug. 29

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

August 29th, 2022

Five two-year-olds will race 5 1/2 furlongs in the $40,000 Osiris S., the opening race on Monday's Assiniboia Downs card.

Below we offer our best pick for the juvenile sprint, along with spot plays for a few of the later races that comprise the $40,000 guaranteed Pick 4, which covers Races 4-7.

Race 1: Osiris S., 5 1/2 furlongs

Undefeated in two career starts at Assiniboia, #1 Lady Cop (7-5) opened as a slight morning line favorite over #3 Adjournment (8-5), a two-year-old gelding who won his debut in the Graduation S. on Aug. 10. Last out, two-year-old filly Lady Cop came home first by a neck in the five-furlong Debutante S. on July 25 and posted a 79 Brisnet Speed rating, one point higher than Adjournment's lone career speed figure.

But Adjournment faced slightly tougher competition in his stakes win and won by two lengths over the favorite, Prairie Drifter, and third-place finisher #4 Arrogance (4-1), who re-opposes here today.

We'll back Adjournment for trainer Lise Pruitt, a 38% winner in non-graded stakes and a 27% winner with horses who won their last race.

Race 5: $1,500 claiming, 7 furlongs

Morning line favorite #4 Aniar (9-5) will cut back in distance after finishing second by a head in a $1,500 claimer at one mile on Aug. 17 at this track and is 10 3-4-0 at today's distance. But the 11-year-old Tom Gardipy Jr. pupil has been a bit inconsistent this campaign, finishing in the money just once in five starts this season.

The chestnut will face a handful of runners making a drop in class, including #2 Bombillaelgato (7-2) and #5 Jenna's Gun Runner (3-1), who both boast the speed figures to spring an upset. We'll play the latter, whose trainer, Jerry Gourneau, wins at a 19% rate with horses dropping down more than two class levels and has gone 8-3-1-1 when paired up with jockey Prayven Badrie over the last 14 days.

The 75 BRIS figure Jenna's Gun Runner posted last out is also the highest last race speed figure among the field.

Race 6: $3,500 claiming, 7 furlongs

#5 Distinct Approval (5-2) is 2-for-2 at Assiniboia, winning a pair of six-furlong sprints on July 27 and Aug. 8 since joining the barn of Steve Keplin Jr. The eight-year-old mare last posted a 76 Speed figure, the highest last race speed rating, and will stay with rider Neville Stephenson, a 67% winner when paired up with Keplin in their last six races together.

Keplin is also a 38% winner at the claiming level and strikes at a 25% rate with horses coming off a win.

We'll back the Storm Cat granddaughter over favorite #2 Two Steps Faster (8-5), who is 1-for-7 at today's distance and last visited the winner's circle in August 2021.

Race 7: $5,000 claiming, 6 furlongs

The finale at Assiniboia Downs features a field of nine fillies and mares who have never won two races.

#6 Miss Giving (2-1) is the favorite, but is 0-for-4 at today's distance and her trainer is just a 4% winner in his last 73 starts at the claiming level.

We'll look elsewhere in the final race of the evening and go for longshot #9 Just for Charlotte (25-1), who drops in class for Gardipy, a 15% winner with sprints and dirt starts. A cut back in distance to six furlongs after two recent starts at 7 1/2 furlongs can help Just for Charlotte get back to the winner's circle.

The four-year-old granddaughter of Unbridled's Song posted a 55 BRIS figure three back when running six furlongs, just a point below Miss Giving's 56 when finishing fourth at today's distance in a $6,250 claimer last out.