Attacking Saturday's Late Pick 5 Carryover at Churchill Downs

Profile Picture: Scott Shapiro

May 19th, 2018

No one connected on Friday’s Late Pick 5 at , so that means a carryover of $26,498 into Saturday’s sequence that commences in Race 7 and concludes with the finale in Race 11.

Here are my thoughts on each of the 5 races:

Race 7:

There does not appear to be much early speed signed on in this conditional claimer at one mile to get things started, so I do not want to rely on runners that will be coming from too far out of it.

#9 Heaven’s Caution is my top choice coming off a maiden breaking voyage at Keeneland last time out. Jockey Gabriel Saez should find his filly prominently placed given the lack of early zip. If the daughter of Creative Cause can avoid regressing off of her 84 BRIS speed rating on April 6th at Keeneland she should be tough to get too late.

I will also include #6 Moolamiss on the stretch out to two turns and #10 Shezappealing based on her expected trip. Both should offer significantly better value than Heaven’s Caution.

Race 8:

This allowance event at nine furlongs over the lawn is the most challenging event in a tricky slate of races over the back part of Saturday’s eleven-race card. For that reason I will use several and hope to catch one of the better prices.

Race 9:

#1 Thristforlife is my single for Saturday’s carryover. The son of Stay Thirsty has run second in all three starts since being claimed by trainer Wesley Hawley, but despite the “seconditis” of late, the four-year-old gelding has shown the ability to win races over his 15-race career. I expect Corey Lanerie to save ground just off of a contentious early pace. He should have enough left late to earn his fifth lifetime score.

Race 10:

The featured Grade 3 is yet another challenging race over the latter part of the Saturday Churchill card.

5-2-morning line favorite #7 Some in Tieme makes his second start off the layoff for trainer Ken McPeek after an eighth place effort in the Grade 2 Elkhorn. He should get more pace to run into than he did in that “merry go round” race in Lexington last month, but I still struggle to completely trust a horse that has won just once in 9 tries dating back to the start of 2017. Therefore, I will also include a pair of trainees in #2 Roman Approval and #4 Bronson.

Race 11:

The sequence ends with a rock bottom maiden claimer at seven panels over the main track. I lack a strong opinion in the finale, but amongst others I will include #9 Time for War in his third lifetime start for trainer Brendan Walsh. He cuts back to one turn and meets a softer group than the ones he encountered over his initial two tries. Hopefully I can navigate my way through the first 4 races and close things out with a bang to end the Saturday action.

Here is my suggested wager:

Race7: 6+9+10

Race 8: 1+3+5+7+8

Race 9: 1

Race 10: 2+4+7

Race 11: 4+5+7+9

Ticket Cost: $90

Good luck on a big Saturday of racing!