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Homeracing

Attacking Thursday’s Pick 5 Carryover at Churchill Downs

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TwinSpires Staff

June 27th, 2018

By SCOTT SHAPIRO

After no one was able to connect on the late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs last Sunday, a $30,454 carryover exists for the final five races on the Twilight Thursday card. The sequence commences at 6:27 (EDT) with a maiden claimer at one mile and concludes with a starter allowance event over the sod.

Here are my thoughts:

Race 4

I am going to play against 2-1-morning line favorite #6 Flight Risk to get things started. The four-year-old gelding has disappointed in two starts since being dropped out of maiden special weight company to start the meet. Last time out, he sat off a three-horse battle on the front end and had every chance, but failed to factor late at 9-to-5.

I will use several in hopes of beating Flight Risk.

Race 5

This maiden special weight event for two-year-olds sprinting over the main track is one of the more intriguing and wide-open races of the evening.

#1 Ready and Rich merits respect off a second place finish to Dream Maker, one of the better looking juvenile winners of the meet for Mark Casse. However, the rail draw will force the son of Super Saver to run hard every step of the way. I see several first-time starters with legitimate chances of getting to the wire first, so I will also spread in the second leg.  

Race 6

I respect the talent that #8 Sweeping Paddy showed in her three-year-old campaign, but I think she is worth playing against in her first start off the 11-month freshening for trainer Dale Romans. She will have to be ready for her best to beat this group, so at 2-1 I will fade her in this high-level optional claimer at nine panels.

#1 English Affair is my top pick for trainer Rusty Arnold. She ran into a “buzz saw” in French-bred La Sardane on Thurby at Churchill Downs and enters this turf route in great form. With a midpack ground-saving trip under Chris Landeros, the daughter of English Channel should prevail.

If the Calumet Farm filly fails to get the job done, second choice #5 Peru can prove best.

Race 7

This compact group of six going nine furlongs over the main track looks like a two-horse race. I prefer the upside of #2 Bourbon Resolution, but respect the chances and form of #3 Come On Dover.

Come On Dover has posted consecutive 91+ BRIS Speed ratings over this racetrack, including a huge runner-up effort under the lights on June 2nd in his first start off the claim for trainer Angel Montano Sr. He will be tough to beat with anything similar.

I expect Bourbon Resolution to run a big one after a prep at one turn on May 28th. The $125,000 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling purchase has never won at two turns, but has the look of a horse that should thrive at a route of ground for trainer Ian Wilkes.

I will take the easy way out since I am trying to beat multiple favorites in the sequence and use both colts.

Race 8

#9 Kitten’s Slew drops out of a very strong allowance event over this turf course where she finished a solid third to a pair of good-looking gals in I Remember Mama and Killay. Trainer Walter Bindner Jr. finds a softer spot where the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be able to get the best of this group late assuming Robby Albarado can avoid significant ground loss early.  

I will single Kitten’s Slew on Ticket 1 and will include #1 Maximus Beauty and #6 Naples Legacy on Ticket 2.

Suggested Wagers:

Ticket 1:

Race 4: 2,4,5,7,9

Race 5: 1,4,5,9,10,12

Race 6: 1,5

Race 7: 2,3

Race 8: 9

Ticket 1 Cost: $60

Ticket 2:

Race 4: 2,4,5,7,9

Race 5: 1,4,5.9.10,12

Race 6: 1

Race 7: 2,3

Race 8: 1,6,9

Ticket 2 Cost: $90

Total Budget: $150

Good luck!

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