Australia Tonight: Lucky 7s & a Group 1 Quartet

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TwinSpires Staff

April 11th, 2014 week’s turf course was extremely wet and with rain forecast throughout the week, today should be more of the same. Big fields and difficult post position draws make some logical horses unplayable.

The Sires’ Produce Stakes (G1) is a $1 million race for 2YOs going seven furlongs. PEGGY JEAN was a good second last out in a group two stakes race on a heavy track behind BRING ME THE MAID who came back with a good third in the Golden Slipper (G1). She draws well and should have no trouble getting seven furlongs. Second start off the freshening should have her fit and ready today. SCRATCH ME LUCKY rallied for second last week in a group three stakes race on a heavy track. Blake Shinn gets off the top choice to ride back and he gets some post position relief. ZULULAND rallied from far back to win a group two going this distance going left-handed at Flemington then won his barrier trial for this. He is an unknown on a wet track but sports a strong late kick.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 exacta box Peggy Jean, Scratch Me Lucky and Zululand.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Win bet on Peggy Jean, straight exacta Peggy Jean with Scratch Me Lucky, Zululand and Time for War.

The Australian Derby (G1) is for 3YOs going 1 ½ miles for $2 million. SAVVY NATURE was a group two stakes winner last year at Moonee Valley going ten furlongs but did little in the Victoria Derby (G1). He’s come back this year with three races at increasing distance and looks like he’s been successfully brought up to this race. PUCCINI was a big disappointment last out going ten furlongs but his prior form in New Zealand was excellent and shows a group one stakes win at today’s distance. THUNDER FANTASY has been knocking heads with some tough older horses and should appreciate today’s company.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $21 win Savvy Nature, $7 exacta part wheel Savvy Nature with Puccini, Thunder Fantasy and Criterion.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Win bet Savvy Nature.  

The T J Smith Stakes (G1) is a six-furlong sprint for $2.5 million and will be run around one, right-hand turn with a field of 18. BUFFERING is a versatile sprint specialist that wins on just about any course condition. He won three straight group one stakes races to finish up 2013 then tired here last out going five furlongs when he had to rush up after breaking awkwardly. Inside post should not matter since he breaks so well. ZOUSTAR  raced evenly in a group one two starts back here behind super mare APPEARANCE. He shows a win at this distance here in a group two in fast time last year and draws well. TIGER TEES was stuck in traffic two starts back here going five furlongs then redeemed himself last out in a group one going five furlongs. He loves wet turf courses and might find clear sailing up the inside.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 exacta box Buffering, Zoustar, and Tiger Tees.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Definitely a race to spread out and if you want to take a bomb, the big field could provide incongruous results. Trifecta box Buffering, Zoustar, Tiger Tees and Gordon Lord Byron.

The Doncaster Mile (G1) is the richest mile race on the turf in the world with a purse of $3 million that attracted a full field of 20. DISSIDENT is 12 to 1 morning line but he has a good win here at today’s distance two starts back from a similar post then raced evenly going ten furlongs at Rosehill. Has a win at course and distance over the same ground that is expected today. SACRED FALLS is a wet-track specialist that gets Zac Purton to ride. He was making up ground last out at Rosehill in a group one but has to overcome post 14. HAWKSPUR was a good second to the red-hot SILENT ACHIEVER going ten furlongs two starts back. He will be a major stretch factor on a wet course. NINTH LEGION is one of those horses that I can’t explain since he likes firm going and shorter distance. Still, his pedigree is solid and he picks up Craig Williams.

Lucky 7’s strategy: $7 win Dissident. $7 exacta box Dissident, Sacred Falls, Hawkspur and Ninth Legion.

Pari-Mutuel wagering strategy: Win/place bet on Dissident. Box top four in exactas and trifectas.