Back At It At Churchill Downs
There's a 10-race card on Wednesday, November 8, to help me continue to get over my Breeders' Cup hangover, and the biggest opportunity for a score might have to wait for the last race when #9 Archangel Rose gets fast dirt for the first time in his career after posting just 1 win from 19 starts on turf and a couple of losses on off dirt.
The 4-year-old Flower Alley gelding could improve on the new surface given his sire's progeny have better win rates on non-turf surfaces than grass. He has a few Brisnet.com Speed Ratings in the 80+ range, which means any improvement would be good enough to win this. On the negative side, he is pretty void of speed, but at 15-to-1 I'll bet jockey Tommy Pompell to work out a trip on a horse we know can win going long at least.
Race 9 will be worth watching, as it goes to 1 1/4 miles since it's off the turf. #15 Defy looks to have a decided pace advantage, but this is a big jump in distance for the Into Mischief filly. Still, her Speed Ratings tower her, and if she's able to set the pace that might be enough to help her get the 10 furlongs.
Full ABC grid is below