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Homeracing

Belmont Park: Analyzing the $63,176 Pick 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

July 2nd, 2022

Independence Day weekend at Belmont Park kicks off on Saturday with a lofty $63,176 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

Handicapping the Pick 6 in advance is tricky, because there’s rain in the forecast and the turf races are stuffed with main-track only entrants. Until we know for certain if the turf races are staying on the grass, it’s hard to narrow down our selections for those races.

Fortunately, the Pick 6 (which gets underway in Race 5 at 3:03 p.m. ET) contains a pair of dirt races with six-horse fields. These races appear considerably more straightforward to handicap than the turf events, and we might even be able to find a viable single to build tickets around.

The first dirt event is Race 6, a $50,000 starter allowance taking place over 1 1/16 miles. #2 Endowed (9-5) is the morning line favorite after dominating a $40,000 maiden claimer at Belmont with ease, but the 76 Brisnet Speed rating he posted is a little light, and squaring off against winners for the first time is a question mark.

#1 Bold Victory (5-2) and #5 Dangerous Edge (9-2) are arguably more appealing. Bold Victory was much the best in a $40,000 claimer at Belmont last month, rallying from off the pace to win by three lengths with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating. Meanwhile, Dangerous Edge enters off a victory in a $35,000 claimer at Belmont, where he scored by 1 1/2 lengths with an 86 Brisnet Speed rating. We might give a slight advantage to Bold Victory, through Dangerous Edge has upside while making only his third start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Rob Atras.

Some bettors might split hairs and single either Bold Victory or Dangerous Edge, though it’s probably not necessary since Race 8—the Dwyer S. (G3) for three-year-olds racing one mile—provides a superior single opportunity. Florida Derby (G1) runner-up #1 Charge It (4-5) has trained strongly since finishing 17th with a troubled journey in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and the beautifully bred son of Tapit has the pedigree to improve with maturity for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Charge It is facing only five rivals in the Dwyer, and racing a one-turn mile should suit the gray colt just fine, considering he broke his maiden by 8 1/2 lengths over a similar configuration at Gulfstream Park. Recent Belmont maiden winner #6 Nabokov (2-1) is the other logical contender, but Charge It has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, and his proven talent and class should win the day.

Good luck!

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