How to Bet the Grade 2 Suburban

Profile Picture: Scott Shapiro

July 6th, 2018

The New York Racing Association has put together a strong stakes laden card this Saturday afternoon that includes five-graded stakes races over the 11-race slate.

The Grade 1 and the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks attracted world class fields and will receive the most attention, but the Grade 2 Suburban also drew a competitive group of older handicap horses for the mile and a quarter trek over the main track.

The field is led by a pair of runners for Hall of Famer .

#5 Dr. Dorr is listed as the 3-1-morning line favorite after two strong performances in graded stakes events at Santa Anita Park. The son of Lookin At Lucky dominated a group at odds of 1 to 2 in the Grade 2 Californian in late April and followed it up with a runner-up effort to Accelerate in the Grade 2 Gold Cup at Santa Anita on May 26th. He enters the Suburban in great form but has to prove he can win away from home.

I respect Dr. Dorr, but the unknown of a cross-country ship, as well as the likelihood of #10 Diversify battling with the five-year-old gelding on the front end concerns me. I prefer the chances of the other Baffert runner #8 Hoppertunity. The veteran son of Any Given Saturday cuts back to a mile and a quarter after a career best 107 BRIS speed rating in the Grade 2 Brooklyn on Belmont Stakes Day. The seven-year-old has struggled to win races elsewhere, but his love for “Big Sandy” and a likely honest early pace should set things up for the $4.6 million-dollar earner.

#2 War Story makes his second start of the form cycle for trainer Jorge Navarro. The son of Northern Afleet was outkicked late by Hoppertunity in the Brooklyn but has never finished worse than second in two tries over the Belmont Park surface and should be rallying late under Javier Castellano. He has an excellent shot to hit the board.

2017 Belmont Stakes winner #4 Tapwrit makes his second start of the form cycle after a less than impressive return effort in early June for trainer Todd Pletcher. He should move forward after shaking off the rust last month, but he will need to get back to his win in the third leg of the Triple Crown to get the best of this group of grizzled veterans.

#3 Zanotti returns to the races after a two-month freshening from trainer Juan Guerrero. The son of Gio Ponti is probably a bit of a stretch on the win end, but he has run second in four straight, including a speed and fade effort in April in the Grade 3 Excelsior at Aqueduct. He is not without a chance of hitting the board at a big price.

#1 Name Changer moves up in class after a pair of victories against optional claiming foes to start his five-year-old campaign for trainer Alan Goldberg. He has to prove he can compete at this level and get the ten-furlong distance, but at his price he is worth inclusion in the backend of exotics.

Here is how I will wager on the Grade 2 Suburban:

$25 Win 8 = $25

$1 Trifecta Wheel

8 with 1+2+3 with 1+2+3+4+5+10 = $15

$1 Trifecta Wheel

8 with 1+2+3+4+5+10 with 1+2+3 = $15

$.50 Superfecta Wheel

8 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+10 with 1+3+4+5+10 = $10

$.50 Superfecta Wheel

8 with 1+3+4+5+10 with 2 with 1+3+4+5+10 = $10

Total Budget: $75