How to Bet the Moyglare Stud Stakes

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September 14th, 2018

The Moyglare Stud Stakes

Can we have anything resembling a firm opinion on Sunday's race?

I’ll be honest, it’s hard to have anything resembling a firm opinion of who might win Sunday’s Moyglare Stud Stakes (Eng-I) at the Curragh in Ireland, a “Win and You’re In” prep race for the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs.

The ten young fillies entered in this seven-furlong sprint comprise a very competitive field, and you can make a case of some sort for the majority of them. The safe bet would be to side with #7 Main Edition, an experienced daughter of Zoffany racing for the high-profile team of trainer Mark Johnston and jockey Frankie Dettori. Main Edition has won four of her five starts to date, including the Albany Stakes (Eng-III) at Royal Ascot and the Sweet Solera Stakes (Eng-III) at Newmarket. Her lone defeat came with a troubled trip in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Eng-II), where she finished seventh behind the talented Pretty Pollyanna.

With an overall Racing Post Rating of 121, Main Edition is viewed as one of the fastest horses in the race, and it’s hard to knock her chances. But trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Moyglare Stud Stakes eight times already and will be well-represented by the improving pair #10 Zagitova and #5 Just Wonderful, while Patrick Prendergast will send out #8 Skitter Scatter, who defeated Zagitova in the Debutante Stakes (Ire-II) over this course and distance last month, which marked her second straight victory at the group stakes level. And what about #3 Beyond Reason, a Godolphin filly who impressed with an easy three-length score in the Shadwell Prix du Calvados (Fr-I) at Deauville? Or #1 Angelic Light, a powerful 5 ½-length maiden winner at the Curragh on August 31st?

Ultimately, I’m leaning toward Skitter Scatter, a daughter of Scat Daddy who has not finished out of the trifecta in six starts. Back in April, she defeated the well-regarded Aidan O’Brien-trained colt Sergei Prokofiev in a quality maiden race at Dundalk, and with an overall Racing Post Rating of 123, she’s the highest-rated horse in the field, at least by that measure. The current “good to yielding” ground conditions should be ideal for her, and I’m expecting another big effort from Skitter Scatter on Sunday.

Rather than get too involved in the wide-open exotics, I’ll bet Skitter Scatter to win and key her in the exacta with Main Edition, Beyond Reason, and Zagitova:

$12 to win on #8 Skitter Scatter $3 exacta: 8 with 3,7,10 ($9) $3 exacta: 3,7,10 with 8 ($9)

Good luck!