Betting a Cold Exacta in the 2019 Selene Stakes

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 16th, 2019

There are four stakes winners among the five fillies entered in Saturday’s $125,000 Selene Stakes (G3) at Woodbine, but despite the quality of the small field, I expect the race to be dominated by #4 Bold Script.

Trained by Stuart Simon, the 3-year-old daughter of Speightstown demonstrated high-class form on turf at Woodbine last year, most notably when she finished third in the Natalma Stakes (G1) and second against colts in the Cup and Saucer Stakes. But when Bold Script gave the Woodbine Tapeta track a try in the 1 1/16-mile Princess Elizabeth Stakes, she fired a huge effort to crush five rivals by 7 1/2 lengths, leaving no doubt about her superiority on the day. This performance was enough to secure Bold Script a Sovereign Award as Canada's champion 2-year-old filly of 2018.

Considering the Selene Stakes will be held over the same track and distance as the Princess Elizabeth, Bold Script has to be considered the filly to beat. She kicked off her 2019 season with a decent fifth-place finish against a deep and competitive field in the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) on dirt at Gulfstream Park, and judging from her last two workouts—including five furlongs in :59 1/5 May 11—she’ll be ready to roll on Saturday.
If anyone can challenge Bold Script, it’s probably trainer , who will send out #1 Souper Charlotte, #2 Power Gal and #3 Preferred Guest. From a handicapping perspective, the three fillies offer varying strengths and weaknesses. Souper Charlotte went 2-for-2 over the Woodbine Tapeta last year, most notably winning the Glorious Song Stakes in late-running fashion, but she’s never run farther than seven furlongs and will be returning from a six-month layoff.

Power Gal has been racing throughout the winter and spring, and handled a mile just fine while winning the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but her Tapeta debut in the six-furlong Star Shoot Stakes at Woodbine wasn’t particularly inspiring. She finished an even third, beaten 3 1/2 lengths.

Preferred Guest offers the best of both worlds—she can boast recent runs and proven form going two turns over the Woodbine Tapeta. She won the South Ocean Stakes over this track and distance in November, but she’s also the slowest filly in the field on paper, having earned Brisnet speed figures in the 71-78 range in her last five starts.

Since this field is small and extracting wagering value could be tricky, I’ll be conservative and bold at the same time. I’ll stick to a simplistic exacta play, but I’ll play it cold: Bold Script over Souper Charlotte for $25.

$25 exacta: 4 with 1

Good luck!