Betting carryovers: Aqueduct's $26,614 Pick 6, Keeneland's $11,731 Super High 5

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April 23rd, 2022

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to key in a pair of five-figure carryovers at Aqueduct and Keeneland.

Aqueduct, Race 5: $26,614 Pick 6 carryover (3:26 p.m. ET)

Fans of non-jackpot carryovers will be excited to play the Saturday card at Aqueduct, where there’s a $26,614 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, look no further than #2 Barese (2-5) in Race 2, the New York Stallion S. Seven New York-bred sophomores have turned out to contest the 6 1/2-furlong sprint, with Barese ranking as a clear standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings.

Barese won his first three starts against New York-breds in comfortable fashion, including the 6 1/2-furlong Rego Park S. and the one-mile Gander S. at Aqueduct. Those efforts earned Brisnet Speed rations of 90 and 95, but Barese actually ran even faster when facing unrestricted company in the Wood Memorial (G2), finishing fifth with a figure of 105.

Considering none of Barese’s Saturday rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 90, Barese should be tough to beat. Trainer Mike Maker wins at a 20% rate with horses cutting back from routes to sprints, stamping Barese as a formidable favorite and a logical Pick 6 single.

Keeneland, Race 10: $11,731 Super High 5 carryover (5:48 p.m. ET)

The Saturday card at Keeneland wraps up with an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds sprinting seven furlongs over the main track. It’s not as noteworthy from a sporting perspective as the two graded stakes taking place earlier in the afternoon, but the finale does feature an $11,731 carryover in the $1 Super High 5, making the race enticing from a betting perspective.

The morning line favorite is #3 Unikee (3-1), and he certainly warrants respect after trouncing a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 2 1/4 lengths, earning a flashy 99 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Saturday’s field. But that effort came over a sloppy track—can Unikee repeat the feat over dry footing while facing tougher competition?

I’m inclined to try and beat Unikee with #1 Great Escape (4-1), who exits a start in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The son of Midnight Storm showed promise in two starts sprinting last season, finishing second in his debut before winning a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 1/4 lengths. The latter effort saw Great Escape post a solid 93 Brisnet Speed rating while counting future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) third-place finisher Giant Game among his beaten rivals.

Great Escape hasn’t been as effective in three starts since stretching out over 1 1/16 miles and farther, though he did finish second in an $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Park to kick off his 2022 campaign. I believe Great Escape can step forward in a big way while cutting back in distance for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, who strikes at a 20% rate with horses transitioning from routes to sprints. The presence of hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 25% winner at Keeneland this meet) adds to the appeal and points toward Great Escape as a horse to key on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!