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Homeracing

Betting For Profit

Profile Picture: Derek Simon

Derek Simon

February 28th, 2015

Anybody who’s been around the Sport of Kings for any length of time knows that all thoroughbreds descended from the Byerley Turk, the Darley Arabian or the Godolphin Arabian; all horseplayers seemingly descended from Mr. Geppetto.

Asking a racetrack punter for an honest account of his/her betting activities is like requesting that Jodi Arias tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. It’s not a question of if lies will be told, but when — and how many.

Personally, I have never known a losing horseplayer. And despite the fact that it is a very tough game to beat, at least consistently, most of my social media friends seem to make a fine living playing the ponies — while working more mundane jobs just to see the joy on someone’s face when they “supersize” their order, gratis.

I even have one Facebook friend who believes it is possible to maintain a 250% ROI by betting on 20-1 shots… of course, he also believes that racetracks conspire against their patrons by “knowing the ability of the horses competing,” which, apparently, nets them profits above and beyond the pari-mutuel takeout and breakage.

Frankly, when I look at the sports handicapping landscape, I’m reminded of the early days of flight. I have no doubt that one can make a profit gambling on sports, but reading a few books, turning on ESPN and quitting one’s day job is not exactly a recipe for success — anymore than strapping on a pair of cardboard wings will allow one to soar like an eagle (trust me, I tried this as a kid — Steve Miller is a bleeping liar).

Beating the races, consistently (which is a huge deal to me — none of this “I had a bad year” nonsense), takes a lot of work. As many of my regular readers know, I’ve been compiling statistics on my own methods and angles for over a year now and I am still amazed — and, to be honest, slightly disappointed — at how wildly my numbers fluctuate.

For example, my “Speed Racer” angle, which appears in my Win Factor Reports, was a woeful 10-for-25 (40 percent) with a -25.20 percent ROI in August; the next month, it went 26-for-36 (72 percent) with a +48.75 percent ROI.

Maddening.

Still, given some of the social media exchanges I’ve had about sports gambling recently, I thought it might be time to finally put my money where my mouth is and demonstrate to those who care how I go about beating the races.

Hence, for the month of March, I will be posting all of my computer-generated method/angle plays along with betting suggestions based on a mythical $5,000 starting bankroll.

Obviously, there is great risk in this. Those who remember the ill-fated “Score with Simon” promotion know that sometimes the best-laid plans gang aft agley. While I have yet to experience a losing month in the “beta phase” of my database testing, there is a first time for everything — and, hey, what’s life without a little public humiliation?

Despite the risk to my ego, however, I feel very strongly that, with all the nonsense one sees and hears regarding the great sport of horse racing, there is a need for saner voices and more rational approaches to betting.  

So, here’s the way it’s going to work:

1) I will be posting my selections, whenever they pop up, on SimonSpeedRations.com prior to the day’s races. In addition, I will make betting suggestions based on a modified version of the Kelly Criterion that I’ve devised.

2) I will track my results daily and also provide the reports I’m using to generate the plays on a regular, if not daily, basis.

I will ask that readers not blindly bet the plays that I post, but rather use them as inspiration and/or as bird cage liner. This is meant as a demonstration only and I don’t want anybody to lose an eye… or an arm or a leg.

Now, let’s have some fun. Click HERE to get my selections and wagers for March 1, 2015.

This weekend’s FREE Reports

Tampa Bay Downs (03/01/15):

PAR
Pace Profile Report
Performance Rating Report
Speed Ration Report
Win Factor Report

Find more free reports and guides to help with your profits.

 

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