Homeracing

Betting the $300,000 Guaranteed TwinSpires.com Late Pick Four at Arlington

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

August 11th, 2018

From a wagering perspective, Arlington Million Day is highlighted by the Pick 4s, in particular the TwinSpires.com Late Pick 4 (50-cent minimum) that includes all the graded stakes and a $300,000 Guaranteed pool. Opt in to the Arlington Pick Four All-Ways Bonus, bet at least $50 into the Arlington Million Day Pick 4s and get a 20% bonus if you win or 20% back if you lose. Bonuses are capped at $500 per player.

Thoughts on the all-stakes sequence:

Race 9 -- Secretariat (G1)

#9 ANALYZE IT (2-1) is a worthy favorite despite coughing up late leads to Catholic Boy in the Pennine Ridge (G3) and Belmont Derby (G1). However, a bad habit like that also makes him a little untrustworthy at a short price. #13 HUNTING HORN (7-2) was third in the Belmont Derby after a romping score in the Hampton Court (G3) at Royal Ascot. May see a stronger pace this time. Fellow Aidan O'Brien trainee #12 LUCIUS TIBERIUS (12-1) absolutely loves 1 1/4 miles having won three of four at the trip, including a handicap against older last time over the left-hand Leopardstown track. Concedes a little class, but going well and gets a significant weight break here.

Race 10 -- Beverly D. (G1)

Leaving out morning-line favorite #3 SISTERCHARLIE, who's just as likely to finish on the wrong side of the photo than win it. #4 DONA BRUJA (6-1) was a dead-heat second in this race last year as the favorite and can go one better as she's reportedly entering in fine fettle, fresh, and experienced over this course. Seemingly doesn't like Keeneland as much as anywhere else she's run, so drawing a line through recent setbacks. #7 FOURSTAR CROOK (9-2) just as capable as Sistercharlie and will be a better price to boot.

Race 11 -- Arlington Million (G1)

#3 ALMANAAR (5-1) beat last year's Million hero Beach Patrol in the 2017 Gulfstream Park Turf (G1), and on June 8 returned from a 16-month spell to win an allowance at Belmont with a strong late turn of foot. #10 ROBERT BRUCE (9-2) edged the now scratched SPRING QUALITY in their mutual season debut in the Fort Marcy (G3), then endured a more troubled journey in the Manhattan while only losing to that rival by a length. That was the Chilean star's first loss in eight attempts.

Race 12 -- Pucker Up (G3)

Aside from a troubled journey in the Edgewood (G3), #13 BEYOND BLAME (3-1) has made few mistakes in a consistent career. Lone graded turf winner in the field with that last-out score in the Regret (G3). #10 SECRET MESSAGE (12-1) survived the Pimlico bog (more heavy than soft on Preakness weekend) when second best in the Hilltop, and last time fell far behind before making up ground late in the Regret. Best might be yet to come in third start for Graham Motion. #3 PAMINA (8-1) steps up in class off a narrow Belmont allowance win. Has shown up to run in all four starts for Michael Dickinson, and looks plenty fast enough to hang with these.

Here's the $1 ticket:

9,12,13 with 4,7 with 3,10 with 3,10,13 = $36

Click here for FREE Brisnet past performances for the TwinSpires.com Late Pick Four

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