Blue Grass BRIS Speed Rating Report

Fourteen three-year-olds will square off in the $1 million Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland and all need points, with none ranking among the top 20 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. One of seven major prep races for the 145^th Kentucky Derby on May 4, most of the Blue Grass runners have plenty of room for improvement from a BRIS Speed rating perspective. Before we analyze the numbers for this year’s Blue Grass field, let’s take review the previous 10 winners. Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Florida Derby winners entering the race:

Horse		BRIS Speed
Good Magic		98
		105

Irap		93
		86

Brody’s Cause		83
		95

Carpe Diem		96
		93

Dance With Fate		89
		88

Java War		97
		87

Dullahan		98
		96

Brilliant Speed		91
		92

Stately Victor		85
		81

General Quarters		88
		100

Analysis: Only two registered a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the last two starts, with Good Magic (105 two back) snapping an eight-year drought. Four brought declining BRIS Speed ratings into the race, with General Quarters (12-point) representing the biggest decrease followed by Good Magic (7-point). Four winners – Dance with Fate (89), General Quarters (88), Stately Victor (85) and Brody’s Cause (83) -- failed to earn at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Dance with Fate and Stately Victor registered a pair of BRIS Speed ratings in the 80s. Four winners -- Good Magic (98), Dullahan (98), Java War (97) and Carpe Diem (96) – earned a BRIS Speed rating of 95+ in the last start. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):

Horse		BRIS Speed
Somelikeithotbrown		91
		88

Vekoma		92
		101

Signalman		87
		95

Market King		88
		85

Chess Chief		86
		79

Dream Maker		85
		91

Admire		89
		95

Win Win Win		92
		101

Sir Winston		90
		96

Lucky Lee		87
		100

So Alive		86
		89

Parsimony		81
		87

Moonster		86
		80

Aquadini		93
		84

Analysis: Aquadini tops the field with a 93 last-out BRIS Speed rating. Aquadini, Vekoma (92), Win Win Win (92), Somelikeithotbrown (91) and Sir Winston (90) are the only contestants to post at least a 90 BRIS Speed rating in the last start. Ten contestants bring declining BRIS Speed ratings into the Blue Grass. Vekoma (101), Win Win Win (101) and Lucky Lee (100) are the only runners to ever earn a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating. PHOTO: Vekoma wins the Nashua Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct under jockey Manny Franco on November 4, 2018 © Adam Coglianese Photography/NYRA

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