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Homeracing

Bountiful Breeders Crown Finals Have Multi-Scenarios For Profitable Wins And Exotics

Profile Picture: Frank Cotolo

October 25th, 2018

 

Oct. 27 at The Downs at Mohegan Sun Pocono (Downs) the 2018 Breeders Crown finals present a dozen of the sport’s best members of their divisions in historic 1-mile battles. Of course, in essence, these are just 12 harness races consisting of horses that met the qualifications set by their elimination performances. As with every season, some of the season’s very good horses will not be involved due to any number of circumstances.

Take Courtly Choice, arguably still the season’s most accomplished soph-colt pacer. He did not make it to Oct. 27. Take Captain Ahab, a huge success in his green division. Take his biggest threat, Stag Party. Gone. Bit Of A Legend N is among the top five earners in his division. Last season’s Horse of the Year, Hannelore Hanover, faded mid-season and finished last in her elim. Stay Hungry was the glamour-boy wiz-kid that was going to win the pacing triple crown, did not and went on to be absent on Oct. 27.

And so on …

Those making it to the gate on Oct. 27 are no victims, nor are they gifted with more luck than talent but they will need both to hammer the top class horses that have made it and were expected to make it here. We will do our best, as usual, to find the valuable wagers among the fields in one of the most contested Breeders Crown Finals program in the history of the series. Posts are in parenthesis after horse’s name. Check your program for the order of the races below.

The Breeders Crown Countdown this week handles freshman-filly pacer-and trotter finals in the blog’s final appearance for 2018. The other 10 finals are covered below. Check your official programs for races’ order of appearance.

Pocono will again offer a 15-percent across-the-board takeout rate on all wagers in the Breeders Crown Finals card 

And no major event is big enough to bounce our great wagering choices selected in the horses-to-watch list (H2W). Explore any and all horses we post for use in wagers of your discretion. Do your own handicapping and then consider any and all our H2W and frosh selections.

BREEDERS CROWN FINALS

THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY TROT $500,000

Plunge Blue Chip (1) versus Atlanta (3); Phaetosive (7) versus Plunge Blue Chip versus Atlanta; Manchego (8) versus … and so on. Plunge Blue Chip was so good last week that he outshone every other in the division. His surge made it appear he could race another mile effortlessly. Meanwhile, Atlanta coasted with no sign of concern leading from wire to wire, having put Manchego and Phaetosive away early.

The best outsider in an elim was Lily Stride (4), who excelled against Atlanta late on the inside from a pocket trip. Lily Stride was 44-1 in a six-horse field after showing major signs of life in Kentucky and she may do better than expected again here, especially if there is shuffling from the star trotters during inner fractions.

THREE-YEAR-OLD COLT TROT $500,000

Let’s get something straight right now: Six Pack (5) is much better than Tactical Landing (4). Okay, let’s get another thing straight: Crystal Fashion (7) is better than Tactical Landing. Those things cleared up, what about Met’s Hall (8)?

This race can go two ways. First, Six Pack wins. Second, Six Pack loses. In scenario one, Ake Svanstedt’s colt (for whom Ake chose post 5) shows his strengths in any way his tactical trotting does when it does so the best. In scenario two, Tactical Landing does not win, either—it goes to Crystal Fashion He was 3-1 against Six Pack in that slop of an elim almost putting him in the opening paragraph of this blog. Catch him here at the best price he offers in a while.

THREE-YEAR-OLD FILLY PACE $500,000

Back and forth all season, Youaremycandygirl (1) and Kissin In The Sand (9) volleyed and thundered—filly pacers to the right of them, filly pacers to the left of them, so to speak. Kissin In The Sand was given a bye, so she is raring to go here. Youaremycandygirl won the division’s solo elim wire to wire on the slick surface last week.

On of the filly pacers to the left or right of either in most races was Alexa’s Power (2) and she is tired of being the third spoke in this wheel. She will take advantage of the bookend post positions and win this, getting the last laugh in the division at a great price, making all that support for her through the season worthwhile.

THREE-YEAR-OLD COLT PACE $530,000

The two Burke elim winners will get a lot of play. Dorsoduro Hanover (1) deserves strong backing; This Is The Plan (2) does not. The latter was a winning victim of circumstance, taking full advantage of Lather Up (8), who broke and returned to stride to make the final.

Now that’s a horse always worth backing, and here, Lather Up can make amends for some of the miscues, like the one last week, that have allowed for him to beat himself so here he can win—at a price. Right?

Sure, because we expect win money to be widely spread. The public will take some chances here because there are scenarios that support Thinkbig Dreambig, American History, Grand Teton, Shnitzledosomethin and Springsteen.

MARE TROT $250,000

Another mess of an elim pair dealt strange results in this division. Broadway Donna (1) will get similar play to last week’s betting, though she galloped her way there. NF Happenstance should soak in better cash than her 9-1 offering when she won the elim. Emoticon Hanover may be the top choice but not by much, considering Ariana G will be flying somewhere along the mile.

Left to become a major overlay could be Ice Attraction (9). There simply is no dismissing an Ake Svanstedt horse. They are always fit to show their best and he is always a fearlessly aggressive driver. Ice Attraction will be a wonderful price, the kind we won’t be able to pass up.

MARE PACE $270,000

The question in this final is: Can Shartin N (2) be beaten? Wait, there is another question, I think: Can Pure Country (5) beat Shartin N? Hold on, I guess there are three questions, the third being: What about Twinkle (1)?

The Pure Country scenario haunts me for two reasons (no, not three, just two). First, Call Me Queen Be (3) could compromise Shartin N, especially if they both go for the lead and more so if they shuffle. Next, she will be nowhere near the low price she went off when losing her elim to Call Me Queen Be. I want to believe this race is that simple—when it comes to trying to beat a horse like Shartin N.

OPEN PACE $430,000

This may be an exhibition race, which means in part that betting it may not be as rewarding as watching it. Readers of this blog know how we feel about Lazarus N (2) versus McWicked (3)—the latter is intrinsically more powerful a pacer that can win while facing adversity, while the former is a one-dimensional machine.

Either pick a side and watch or take a chance on any scenario that becomes a rare opportunity for another horse in the field to beat both of the big boys. Suggestions? Leaving from the rail, Filibuster Hanover (1) may be able to attempt a steal on the three-turn Pocono track. Taking the lead is not his only option. He could find a good seat to draft along and save his strong pacing style for charging up the inside. He has under-performed this season and here he may be in a spot to get back on the ball for another chance in this division in 2019.

OPEN TROT $500,000

What happened in the elims for this division will stay in the elims of this division, for here we have the representatives of those two races and it makes for an entirely different drama. What we learned from one of the elims is that our suspicion that Pinkman (1) was waking up to a new and more lucrative campaign was true.

We have been among the disappointed in Takter’s gelding at five and six but close examination of his trips and competition this season have given us the impression he has been racing better than his finishes indicate; he is improving with age. Inspect his trips from June on and you may feel as we did about last week, that he could have pushed to a win but settled for second against Guardian Angel AS (3). What we feel now is what he has to offer in the final may cause the biggest upset of the evening—Pinkman leaving from the inside and all the others chase futilely.

As an historic note, Pinkman will try to join Wesgate Crown as the only multiple Breeders Crown champion with a gap of more than three years between first and second titles. Wesgate Crown won at age two in 1993 and again at age six in 1997.


H2W Legend

Review our choices and follow the wagering at the prescribed track. These are possible contenders we have judged from reviewing races. The horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track after the date they will be racing. The race in which they are entered (R and race number) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name it means it is appearing on the list for the second (and last) time because it failed to win the first time it appeared. An “ae” signals the horse is entered on the also-eligible list. If a horse is listed twice, refer to the entries on the night of the race since a horse may enter in more than one race. Types of wagering on any of the H2W listed horses are based on your judgment. If you have any questions, email us at TwinSpires.

H2W LIST


Bangor
10/26/18, Quincy R2; Sachertorte R6

Dayton
10/26/18, +Kays Work Of Art R2; +Iced Out R9
10/27/18, +Just Bettor R9

Flamboro
10/25/18, +Majestic Kat R4; Its Huw You Know R5; Tanzanian R11
10/27/18, +Trumps Rally R1; +Helena Jimbag R10

Freehold
10/27/18, +Casual Cool R7

Hoosier
10/26/18, +Piranha Fury R1; Fox Valley Gemini R3; +Scirocco Rob R7; +Hey Blondie R10; +Nixie Volo R10; Rockapello R11; +Cinnamack R11
10/27/18, +Skyway Royalty R7; +Freaky Feet Pete R10
 
Meadows
10/29/18, +Capital Account R1; Jet Aviation R13

Meadowlands
10/26/18, Godspell Hall R5; Modesty R9
10/27/18, +Glass Prince R3

Monticello
10/25/18, +Late Night Flight R7
10/29/18, Cool Desire R2; Blue Bell Beauty R6

Philly
10/26/18, +King Harvest R1; Nike Franco R4; Im Trigger Happy R4; Loutenant R11

Plainridge
10/25/18, Winbak Magic R2; Angel Assault R5; Cyclone Artist R8

Pocono
10/28/18, Ideal Rocky R6

Pompano
10/28/18, +Sharknado R6; Sports Authority R9; Lyons Johnny R10
10/29/18, Full Moon Dodger R1; Crazy Bad K R6

Saratoga
10/25/18, +Duluth R9
10/26/18, +Loyalty Hanover R1

Scarborough
10/27/18, Mademoiselle Paris R2; On First R6; Not My First Rodeo R9

Vernon
10/27/18, Mayflowermoonshine R3; The Royal Garden N R6

Yonkers
10/26/18, +Bali R1; +Artrageous R8
10/27/18, +Dayson R11
10/29/18, Babes Dig Me R8
 

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