Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday Favorites Predictions

Profile Picture: D.S. Williamson

D.S. Williamson

September 30th, 2018

With some prep races still to be run, I thought it might be a good idea to make my predictions for Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday. As opposed to last year, the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships has decided to run all juvenile races, including the Sentient Jet Juvenile, on Friday, Nov. 2. That's left Saturday open for massive championship races including the BC Distaff.

Check out my favorites predictions for the Breeders' Cup Mile,  Breeders' Cup Longines Distaff, Breeders' Cup Longines Turf, and the most important race of the year, the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Breeders’ Cup Championship Saturday Favorites Predictions

Breeders' Cup Mile - Expert Eye

Expert Eye took the Group 3 Jersey Stakes earlier this year, but that wasn't his most important race. The Juddmonte Farms owned and Sir Michael Stoute trained son of Acclamation also took the Group 3 City of York Stakes. He finished second behind Lightning Spear in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes before finishing third behind Recoletos and Wind Chimes in the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp.

Lightning Spear, Lancaster Bomber, and Rhodendron might all enter into this race. If they do, Expert Eye won't go off the chalk. Heck, Expert Eye might not run. It depends on how he performs in the Prix de La Floret. I believe that he wins that, hops on a plane a couple of weeks later, and goes off the favorite to win at Churchill Downs.

Longines Distaff - Abel Tasman

Abel Tasman finished a terrible fifth as the 1-5 chalk in the Zenyatta Stakes. What a flub, right? Not really. Jockey Mike Smith had her last around 10 lengths before the first call. The front running winner, Vale Dori, got a half in :48.

Smith should put Abel Tasman on the lead or near the lead in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She won't have trouble transferring her form to Churchill Downs' dirt, either. She won the Kentucky Oaks. It's impossible to look past Abel Tasman unless you believe she lost the Zenyatta because she's not that good. She'll go off the favorite to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov. 3.

Longines Turf - Roaring Lion

If Roaring Lion wins the Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe, he might skip the Breeders' Cup Turf. Or, he might run in the Breeders' Cup Turf because, well, why not? He heads to the Prix De l'Arc off 3 straight wins. Two races ago, he put a beat down on Poet's Word. In his last, he beat Saxon Warrior.

Roaring Lion, should he run in the Breeders' Cup Turf, will offer the lowest odds of any favorite on the BC Championship Saturday card. Even if he only finishes in the Top 4 in France, he'll be odds-on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Breeders' Cup Classic - Accelerate

I'm somewhat lukewarm on Accelerate, but that's only because I'm not so sure he'll get by West Coast in the Breeders' Cup Classic the we he got by West Coast in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes. But, no handicap horse has performed as well this year as Accelerate has.

Also, West Coast might face quicker fractions in the BC Classic then what he faced in the Awesome Again Stakes. I probably won't bet on Accelerate to win the Classic. Unless some horse runs huge on October 7, he's likely to go off the chalk in the Classic, though.