Breeders' Cup Distaff Top 5 Final Rankings

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D.S. Williamson

September 30th, 2018

Because we're only a month out from the 2018 Breeders' Cup, I thought it important to publish my final Breeders' Cup Distaff Top 5 Rankings. As to be expected, I've got Abel Tasman and Elate in the top couple of spots. Also as to be expected, Monomoy Girl, the likely Eclipse 3-year-old filly champion, shows up at third on my list.

Who shows up behind Monomoy Girl? Check it out and like with my Breeders' Cup Classic Top 5 Final Rankings, don't be shy if you disagree. Let me know!

Breeders' Cup Distaff Top 5 Final Rankings

1. Abel Tasman

She bombed in the Zenyatta Stakes, but that's because she prefers to be much closer. Santa Anita's racetrack had been super fast while Bob Baffert trained Vale Dori, who led the Zenyatta Stakes gate-to-wire, got away with a :48 half. I hope she doesn't go off the chalk to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff because if she offers odds at 8/5 or higher, I'm all over it.

Why? If Mike Smith gets her going early, like he did in the Personal Ensign, she should win because no other horse on this list has her talent.

2.  Elate

There was only so much jockey John Velasquez could do in the Personal Ensign Stakes. I thought Elate might run by Abel Tasman. Nope. Trainer Bill Mott is so bullish on Elate's chances of winning on Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday that he said he might enter her into the Breeders' Cup Classic.

If she goes in the Distaff, can she turn the tables on Abel Tasman? I think she can, but she must improve to do so and she didn't improve at all in the Distaff after winning the Grade 1 Beldame last year.

3. Monomoy Girl

I do believe Monomoy Girl interfered with Midnight Bisou in the Grade 1 Cotillion. However, I'm not worried that she's over the top. Monomoy Girl will grab the lead, or lie right off, and then run as hard as she can to the wire. She should face more speed with Abel Tasman being forwardly placed, but it might not matter.

The truth about Monomoy Girl is that we don't know how good she is. She runs as fast as needed to win the race. I've got the feeling that even if she runs the half in :45, she'll hang on for a Top 4 finish. That's how competitive she is.

4. Midnight Bisou

The top 3-year-old filly from California finally put it all together in the Cotillion. She would have run right by Monomoy Girl if that one hadn't interfered with her in the stretch. Although that's true, Monomoy Girl might be one of those horses that carries her speed further at 1 1/8 miles than she does at 1 1/16 miles. I like Midnight Bisou and she makes my Top 5, but I'm not ready to put her ahead of the soon to be 3-year-old filly champ.

5. Eskimo Kisses

She'll run in the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland on October 7. That will be the first time we've seen Eskimo Kisses since she won the Alabama at Saratoga in early August. If she wins the Spinster easily, she could be a dark horse to win the Breeders' Cup Distaff. 3-year-olds often grow up during this time of the year. So, I'm really keen on watching her this Saturday.