Breeders' Cup Friday: Keeping an eye on Double will-pays and playing the Pick 4
Simultaneously covering and betting the Breeders' Cup is at times tricky as work responsibilities often get in the way of watching the tote board for potential opportunities. One of my goals this weekend is to pay more attention to the rolling Double will-pays, especially in situations where in the first leg I believe a) the heavy favorite is vulnerable, and/or b) I really like someone other than the top betting choices to come through.
For example, the $2 Distaff/Classic Double linking Beholder and Arrogate last year paid $28.40, two highly logical contenders that happened to overturn odds-on favorites Songbird and California Chrome. The $2 Sprint/Turf Sprint Double last year involving 7-2 shots Drefong and Obviously paid $63, while the $2 Double linking Obviously with 9-2 Juvenile winner Classic Empire returned $65. In retrospect, there's no excuse in not hitting those ones multiple times.
While I take a wait-and-see approach about which Doubles to go after Friday and Saturday, my Pick 4 play on Friday's four Breeders' Cup races will include some or all of the horses I've included in my top three selections, which can be found inside the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Betting Guide.
I'll use the Aidan O'Brien pair of Happily (#2) and September (#10) along with leading U.S. hope Rushing Fall (#11) in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), but will just stick with my top two of Accelerate (#8) and Sharp Azteca (#3) in the Dirt Mile (G1).
While I'm using morning line choice Karar (#6), who may or may not be the actual favorite in a wide-open Juvenile Turf (G1), I'm really hoping this can be my separator race with the inclusion of Catholic Boy (#4) and horse-for-the-course Encumbered (#9).
I've been a Forever Unbridled (#6) fan for months now and will key her on a $1 Pick 4 ticket that costs $18 total. I'll do a 50-cent backup ticket with the above horses but with Paradise Woods (#7) and Elate (#5) in the Distaff leg, also for a total of $18.
$1 Pick 4 = 2,10,11 with 3,8 with 4,6,9 with 6
$.50 Pick 4 = 2,10,11 with 3,8 with 4,6,9 with 5,7