Breeders' Cup Juvenile Preview

Profile Picture: James Scully

October 30th, 2015

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) features a full field of 14 with no standouts. And there isn’t an abundance of early speed as well.

1ST: EXAGGERATOR (6-1) got sick after winning the Saratoga Special (G2) and was arguably a race short when returning from a seven-week layoff in the October 3 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He launched an early move that afternoon to take the lead on the far turn and entered the stretch drive on a clear lead, but the Curlin colt got a little tired late and yielded to the fast-finishing Brody’s Cause, easily saving runner-up honors while finishing a length back on the wire. He’s registered respectable BRIS Speed ratings in his last two outings and possesses the tactical speed to sit a favorable trip right behind the early leaders for trainer Keith Desormeaux, who captured last year’s Juvenile with Texas Red.

2ND: GREENPOINTCRUSADER (4-1) was a buzz horse after finishing a neck second in his debut and followed with a game maiden tally at Saratoga. The Bernardini colt took a big step forward in a sloppy Champagne (G1) last out, rallying boldly to win going away by 4 1/2 lengths, and he’s trained forwardly by most accounts at Keeneland for Dominick Schettino. The promising dark bay could continue to show more in the Juvenile with Joe Bravo.

3RD: BRODY’S CAUSE (7-2) figures to be running late but must avoid leaving himself too much to do in the short stretch at Keeneland. He’s done nothing wrong in two dirt starts for Dale Romans, winning a key maiden special weight at Churchill Downs prior to the Breeders’ Futurity, and the son of Giant’s Causeway figures to be a top prospect for next year’s Kentucky Derby if he stays healthy. Brody’s Cause can’t be dismissed as a win contender but a minor award appears more likely.

Longshot: UNBRIDLED OUTLAW (15-1) exits an extremely troubled third-place effort in the Iroquois and could make an impact with a better trip here. He figures to be running late with new jockey Mike Smith. Nyquist brings a perfect 4-for-4 mark into the Juvenile but drew poorly on the far outside. I’ll try to beat him, but the possibility remains he could flash to the front and last a long way.

Exaggerator photo courtesy of NYRA/Adam Coglianese Photography