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Homeracing

Brisnet Late Pace Rating report for 2022 Kentucky Derby

Profile Picture: James Scully

April 24th, 2022

A handicapping tool for the Kentucky Derby (G1), Brisnet Late Pace ratings measure how fast a horse ran from the second call of a race to the wire.

The Kentucky Derby will be the first start at the 1 1/4-mile distance for contestants, and past winners have earned strong Late Pace numbers in prep races.

Since 2010, American Pharoah, Justify, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, I’ll Have Another, Orb, and Animal Kingdom all registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings, at least once, from their final two starts before winning the Kentucky Derby.

No horse has finished first in the Kentucky Derby without netting at least an 86 Late Pace figure in the final prep over that time span.

Let’s take a look at the 2022 contenders (excluding a pair of international shippers), ranked by highest last-out number.

2022 Kentucky Derby Late Pace

MO DONEGAL

121

 

93

ZANDON

114

 

93

TAIBA

109

 

99

EPICENTER

106

 

89

TIZ THE BOMB

105

 

88

SMILE HAPPY

102

 

93

MESSIER

102

 

100

ZOZOS

98

 

111

HAPPY JACK

95

 

81

PIONEER OF MEDINA

95

 

86

CYBERKNIFE

86

 

91

BARBER ROAD

86

 

108

TAWNY PORT

85

 

99

*IN DUE TIME

82

 

88

*ETHEREAL ROAD

82

 

88

WHITE ABARRIO

77

 

95

CHARGE IT

77

 

107

UN OJO

74

 

105

SIMPLIFICATION

70

 

94

* Outside the top 20

 

Takeaways

Seven contenders – Mo Donegal (121), Zandon (114), Taiba (109), Epicenter (106), Tiz the Bomb (105), Smile Happy (102), and Messier (102) – registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings in the final prep. Four others – Zozos, Barber Road, Charge It, and Un Ojo – accomplished it in their penultimate start.

Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal and Zandon earned massive last-out numbers. Justify (114) is the only official winner with a last-out 110+ figure since 2010, but Maximum Security earned a 123 in the Florida Derby before being disqualified for interference in 2019.

From the final two preps, the Blue Grass (Zandon and Smile Happy), Santa Anita Derby (Taiba and Messier), and Rebel (Un Ojo, Barber Road, and Ethereal Road) produced multiple runners with triple-digit Late Pace ratings.

The Arkansas Derby was not fast late, as Cyberknife (86), Barber Road (86), and Un Ojo (74) all rank outside the top 10 in last-race numbers.

The Florida Derby came back slower, as White Abarrio (77), Charge It (77), and Simplification (70) all failed to get out of the 70s.

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