Churchill: Best way to gobble up profits in the Falls City Stakes

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

November 25th, 2021

An excellent field of seven fillies and mares will contest the $500,000 Falls City S. (G2) at Churchill Downs on Thursday. The Thanksgiving Day feature boasts an accomplished group of ladies in what is a fantastic rendition of the event.

While I can’t see past the four well-meant contenders on the morning line, there will still be value to be had in the affair.

#4 Envoutante (7-2) has not endured favorable pace scenarios in her last three tilts leading up to this affair, but I believe that the Kenny McPeek trainee will get her preferred voyage on Thursday en route to victory. A six-length romper of the event in 2020, the four-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo has never finished out of the money beneath the Twin Spires (6-3-1-2) while always facing top competition.

The classy lass comes in fresh while showing some solid morning drills on the course, and she will be forwardly placed while tracking from second or third throughout in the Falls City. She will not have to chase Letruska or Shedaresthedevil early in this spot, which will greatly benefit her chances under regular rider Brian Hernandez, Jr.

#5 Army Wife (5-2) will make her initial try with elders and rates a solid chance with her top performance. Trained by Mike Maker, the daughter of Declaration of War has held up well with what I believe to be an outstanding three-year-old class, and she also has the right running style to get the jump on the late runners turning for home. The Grade 2 heroine is training well and will have Joel Rosario in the stirrups.

#1 Crystal Ball (7-2) has steadily evolved into a very good filly for Rodolphe Brisset. By Malibu Moon, the four-year-old has strong current form and finished ahead of my top selection when runner-up in the Locust Grove (G3) on the oval two prior. The Kentucky-bred bay has early foot combined with a cozy rail post, so I envision she will lay close from the opening bell in the fray. Tyler Gaffalione, who has guided Crystal Ball home in her last two outings, will be in the silks once again.

The Brad Cox-trained #6 Bonny South (9-5) boasts the best turn of foot in the field and will be tough to fend off late if she produces her best performance. The Juddmonte homebred has run some fantastic races at Grade 1 level this season, and she appears to be in a really nice spot with these foes. I do worry that the potential moderate pace will hurt her chances in the stretch, however. Florent Geroux will be up.

Falls City Wagers

  • $30 win #4 Envoutante ($30)
  • $15 exacta 4 with 5 ($15)
  • $2 superfecta key 4 with 1, 5, 6 ($12)