Churchill Downs: Horse racing pick of the day for Oct. 29

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

October 29th, 2020

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Thursday, Oct. 29

Churchill Downs, Race 6: Allowance (1 1/16 miles, 3:36 p.m. ET)

#1 Attachment Rate (7-5 on the morning line) is a logical favorite, after a 14th-place effort in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The son of Hard Spun previously posted seven consecutive Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 or better, including a 98 when he finished second in the 1 1/8-mile Ellis Park Derby. He is clearly the fastest horse on paper.

But #4 Guided Missile (6-1) is an intriguing alternative. The gray colt overcame some homestretch antics to win his debut sprinting 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs last month and is eligible to improve in his first start for trainer Bret Calhoun.

Guided Missile is a son of Tapit, out of the Tiznow mare Pussyfoot, a half-sister to Pennsylvania Derby (G2) and Carter H. (G1) winner Morning Line.

This is a pedigree geared toward class and stamina, so I’m optimistic Guided Missile will take a step forward in his second start. I’ll box him in the exacta with Attachment Rate, but favor the lower-paying combination with the favorite on top.

$13 exacta: 4 with 1
$7 exacta: 1 with 4
Total: $20

Good luck!