Churchill Downs: How to bet the $12,545 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

June 5th, 2022

After going unclaimed for multiple days in a row, the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs heads into Sunday with a $12,545 carryover for the grabs.

As usual, the wager is available to play in the final race of the day. That would be Race 10, a seven-furlong maiden special weight featuring an overflow field of 16 entries, including four also-eligibles. Suffice to say, it’s a tough race to analyze.

#4 Bourbon Heist (3-1) is the morning-line favorite after finishing second in a fast six-furlong maiden special weight on May 7 at Churchill Downs, earning a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed rating. Stretching out over seven furlongs shouldn’t be an issue since Bourbon Heist has placed multiple times over this distance, but can we trust him to vie for victory at a short price? With six runner-up finishes from nine starts, Bourbon Heist tends to settle for second place more often than not.

#12 Elite Power (7-2), who finished a neck behind Bourbon Heist when third in the May 7 maiden heat, is another logical contender. But the four-year-old son of Curlin is carrying top weight of 124 pounds, and his previous two efforts weren’t especially remarkable. A fast pace helped his chances on May 7, and it’s unclear whether Elite Power will receive the same favorable setup on Sunday.

Perhaps we should focus our attention on the Brad Cox-trained first-time starters #6 Grand Aspen (8-1) and #9 Concerted (4-1). Cox has been on fire with debuting runners this year, going 14-for-36 (39%), and he’s actually visited the winner’s circle with six of his last nine first-time starters.

Concerted is the shorter price on the morning line after firing off several bullet workouts at Keeneland, and the Godolphin homebred brings a classy pedigree to the table—half-brother Shared Sense is a two-time graded stakes winner. But Grand Aspen has likewise been training sharply and will be ridden by jockey Florent Geroux, a 26% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

Let’s key Grand Aspen and Concerted on top of our Super High 5 tickets while emphasizing Bourbon Heist and Elite Power underneath.

  • $1 Super High 5: 6,9 with 4,6,9,12 with 4,6,9,12 with 4,6,9,12 with 1,3,5,8,11 ($60)
  • $1 Super High 5: 6,9 with 4,6,9,12 with 4,6,9,12 with 1,3,5,8,11 with 4,6,9,12 ($60)
    Total: $120

Good luck!