Churchill Downs: How to bet the $3,797 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 13th, 2021

The Saturday card at Churchill Downs features a $3,797 Super High 5 carryover in Race 11, a maiden special weight for juveniles racing one mile over the main track.

If you’re looking for advice on betting the $1 wager, we’ll begin with the perfectly logical step of keying #4 Call Me Midnight (5-2) on top. The son of Midnight Lute owns the two highest Brisnet Speed ratings in the field (85 and 81), which isn’t surprising given the caliber of competition he’s faced. Across his four starts, Call Me Midnight has finished behind such talented runners as Hopeful S. (G1) winner Gunite, Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero Rattle N Roll, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Giant Game.

Call Me Midnight enters off a sharp runner-up effort in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Keeneland, where he rallied gamely from behind a slow pace to finish three lengths behind Giant Game. Cutting back to a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs shouldn’t be an issue for Call Me Midnight, and he enters Saturday’s test off a sharp five-furlong workout in :59 4/5.

If Call Me Midnight takes top honors, then #1 Almanzo (3-1) has to be viewed as a key contender for the minor awards. A stoutly bred son of Tapit out of a Ghostzapper mare, Almanzo finished fourth in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs before improving to second in a seven-furlong dash at Keeneland. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 34% rate with horses stretching out off a pair of sprints, and Almanzo’s pedigree suggests the longer trip will be a benefit.

#10 Brawndo (5-1), fourth and sixth in his first two starts sprinting on the Kentucky circuit, brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold, and is training sharply for his route debut. The fact trainer Eddie Kenneally is a 22% winner with horses running long for the first time stamps Brawndo as a logical player.

For the lower slots on our tickets, #6 Lake Tahoe (10-1), #7 Loonshot (30-1), #8 Quick to Blame (6-1), and #9 Oiler (6-1) all warrant inclusion, and we’ll throw in #2 Liam the Brave (20-1) for fifth place.

$1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,10 with 1,10 with 6,7,8,9 with 2,6,7,8,9 ($32)
$1 Super High 5: 4 with 1,10 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,10 with 2,6,7,8,9 ($32)
Total: $64

Good luck!