Churchill Downs: How to bet the $4,591 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

September 19th, 2021

When Runaway Magic sprung a 6-1 upset in the Saturday finale at Churchill Downs, the bay gelding helped trigger a $4,591 carryover in the Super High 5.

The prize pool for the $1 wager will be dispersed in Sunday’s 10th race at Churchill, assuming someone is able to construct a winning ticket. And while we won’t count our bets before they’ve been cashed, it seems reasonable to conclude Sunday’s Super High 5 is winnable on a modest budget.

The 10th race is a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for fillies and mares in which #8 Princess Lea (2-1) looms as a logical favorite. The Joe Sharp trainee was in sharp form during the Churchill Downs spring meet, finishing second and third in a pair of 1 1/16-mile maiden special weights while earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 83. She’s the fastest filly in Sunday’s field and is versatile in terms of running style, setting the stage for a competitive effort no matter how the pace unfolds.

The only concern is the fact Princess Lea has hit the board in all nine of her starts without winning—in other words, she’s shown a tendency to settle for the minor awards rather than fight for victory. So instead of keying Princess Lea on top of our Super High 5, we’ll box her for first and second place with logical alternative #5 Moonchild (5-2).

Conditioned by Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, Moonchild ran well in her debut racing one mile on turf at Indiana Grand last month, carving out the pace before weakening slightly to finish third by three lengths. She’s come back to train sharply over the Indiana Grand main track and has the pedigree to thrive on dirt, so I’m optimistic she’ll improve while switching surfaces. Keep in mind, Cox’s 27% win rate with second-time starters far exceeds the 14% win rate he’s compiled with first-time starters this year.

#1 Street Missy (10-1), #2 Super Quick (5-1), #3 Viva La Red (8-1), and #6 Lemon’s Medaglia (12-1) are the ones we’ll use underneath our top duo.

$1 Super High 5: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,2,6 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,6 ($36)

Good luck!