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Homeracing

Churchill Downs: How to bet the $6,715 Super High 5 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

July 3rd, 2022

Independence Day weekend at Churchill Downs continues on Sunday with a $6,715 carryover on the table in the $1 Super High 5.

Constructing a winning ticket won’t be easy. The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 10, a seven-furlong maiden special weight featuring an overflow field of 14 entries. Two are also-eligibles, so it seems likely 12 horses will start, generating 95,040 possible outcomes for bettors to consider.

Here’s the good news: outside posts (specifically posts 8 and wider) have excelled in seven-furlong dirt sprints at Churchill this spring, so morning line favorite #11 Seal Beach (3-1) should be set for a favorable trip while breaking from one of the two outermost draws.

As a two-year-old in 2021, Seal Beach hit the board in all five of his starts against maiden special weight company, including two at Churchill Downs. He also competed in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Along the way, Seal Beach knocked heads with such accomplished stakes winners as Epicenter, Dash Attack, Classic Causeway, and Rattle N Roll.

Following a seven-month layoff, Seal Beach returned to action in a six-furlong maiden special weight on June 12 at Churchill Downs, where he rallied gamely from midfield to finish second by one length. The final time was quick, and Seal Beach pulled 4 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. With this comeback effort under his belt, Seal Beach should be poised for victory in his second start off the layoff, a winning move 20% of the time for trainer Mike Maker.

Who are the other key contenders? First-time starter #9 Film Star (6-1) has landed a favorable post draw and is eligible to challenge on debut for hot trainer Brad Cox, a 30% winner at Churchill this spring. #7 Drink the Wind (4-1) can’t be dismissed after returning from a long layoff to finish third (behind Seal Beach) on June 12. And #6 American Mayhem (9-2) is a strong contender while cutting back in distance off a runner-up effort racing one mile at Churchill last month.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

  • $1 Super High 5: 11 with 6,7 with 6,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 ($64)

Good luck!

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