Churchill Downs: How to bet the mandatory-payout $89,819 Derby City 6 carryover

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

May 7th, 2022

Kentucky Derby (G1) day at Churchill Downs just got even better for bettors. The 20-cent Derby City 6 boasts an $89,819 carryover, and it’s slated for a mandatory dispersal on Saturday afternoon.

The all-stakes sequence for this enticing Pick 6 culminates with a competitive renewal of the Kentucky Derby, but the earlier legs look just as challenging to decipher.

Let’s take race-by-race look at the Derby City 6, then assemble a ticket on a ~$75 budget:

Race 7: Pat Day Mile (G2, one mile)

#5 Jack Christopher (2-1) went 2-for-2 as a juvenile and trounced the one-mile Champagne S. (G1) by 2 3/4 lengths, earning a flashy 97 Brisnet Speed rating. But Jack Christopher hasn’t run since October, so in case he needs a race off the layoff, we’ll back him up with #3 Pappacap (6-1). Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up weakened after pressing a fast pace in the Florida Derby (G1) and can thrive while cutting back to a one-turn mile.

Race 8: Derby City Distaff (G1, seven furlongs)

#2 Just One Time (3-1) has been on fire and enters off victories in the Inside Information (G2) and Madison (G1). She’s a logical choice, but this is a deep field with many viable contenders. #6 Bell’s the One (5-1) was beaten less than a length when second in the Madison. #7 Edgeway (4-1) has won two stakes since finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). #5 Obligatory (7-2) is 2-for-2 at Churchill, most notably winning the Eight Belles (G2) over this distance last spring. We’ll use all four.

Race 9: American Turf (G2, 1 1/16 miles on turf)

#7 Sy Dog (7-2) is 3-for-3 and closed nicely into a slow pace to win the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland last month. He can win right back under three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz, though Cutler Bay S. winner #2 Main Event (5-1) is also worth using.

Race 10: Churchill Downs (G1, seven furlongs)

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner #1 Aloha West (7-2) has a strong turn of foot, but he hasn’t run since November. Champion sprinter #3 Jackie’s Warrior (5-2) is a brilliant speedster, but he ran slightly below his peak when winning the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3) last month. Neither one is necessarily unbeatable, but using both should give us a strong chance to survive in the Pick 6.

Race 11: Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1, 1 1/8 miles on turf)

Trainer Chad Brown has won three straight editions of this race, and he could certainly grab another courtesy of Fair Grounds (G3) runner-up #8 Adhamo (9-2) or three-time graded stakes winner #3 Public Sector (5-1). But the biggest win threat might be #6 Shirl’s Speight (3-1), who unleashed an epic turn of foot to overcome slow fractions and win the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) by a nose at Keeneland last month.

Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1, 1 1/4 miles)

#1 Mo Donegal (10-1) unleashed a terrific finish to win the Wood Memorial (G2). #3 Epicenter (7-2) beat quality competition in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). #12 Taiba (12-1) and #6 Messier (8-1) ran one-two in a fast renewal of Santa Anita Derby (G1). We’ll use all four to conclude the Pick 6.

  • 20-cent Pick 6: 3,5 with 2,5,6,7 with 2,7 with 1,3 with 3,6,8 with 1,3,6,12 ($76.80)

Bonus carryover: Golden Gate Fields, Race 6, $21,191 Pick 5 carryover (7:22 p.m. ET)

If you’re ready for more action after the Kentucky Derby, then check out $21,191 Pick 5 carryover up for grabs at Golden Gate Fields. The sequence gets underway at 7:22 p.m. ET (approximately 25 minutes after post time for the Derby), providing a perfect means to wind down after an exciting afternoon at Churchill Downs.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, look no further than #8 Becca Taylor (6-5) in Race 9, a six-furlong allowance taking place over the Tapeta track. Becca Taylor is a nose away from being undefeated in seven starts and has won multiple stakes against California-bred fillies and mares. Even better, Becca Taylor dominated her lone previous start over the Golden Gate Tapeta, trouncing a 5 1/2-furlong allowance by four lengths. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and hot jockey Armando Ayuso has the mount for high-percentage trainer Steve Miyadi, setting the stage for an easy victory.

Good luck!