Churchill Downs: Insights for the Single 6 carryover Nov. 19

Profile Picture: J. Keeler Johnson

November 19th, 2020

Looking to chase a jackpot payoff this week? Then why not check out the $143,816 Single 6 carryover on Thursday at Churchill Downs?

The jackpot-style Pick 6 wager requires a bettor to hold the only winning ticket on the day to claim the full pool, but even when multiple bettors cash winning tickets, the consolation payoffs are well worth pursuing.

Wednesday recap

The transfer of two turf races to the main track produced a bevy of scratches, which contributed to a steady string of short-priced winners. While a 9-1 shot did prevail in the second leg of the Single 6, the remaining five winners all started at 7-2 or less, including three victorious favorites.

Even with the 9-1 winner in play, a theoretical $2 win parlay across the six winners would have returned just $408.04. Bettors would have been better off putting together a 20-cent Single 6 ticket, which generated a hefty payoff of $1,320.60.

Thursday insights

The Thursday sequence kicks off in Race 4, a competitive $25,000 claiming event. Although just half a dozen horses have been entered, you can make a case for several.

#4 Hard to Be Good (5-2) brings the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation and looms as a logical contender in his first start for trainer Tom Amoss, who strikes at a 24% rate with recent claiming acquisitions.

But don’t overlook the chances of 2019 Holy Bull (G2) winner #2 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2), who will drop down the class ladder for trainer Grant Forster. While Harvey Wallbanger’s recent form is uninspiring, he has fired off big efforts without warning in the past, and his career-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating from a Feb. 29 allowance win at Gulfstream Park easily tops this field.

Race 7 is a bit more straightforward. A 5-furlong allowance dash for fillies and mares, the race looks like a battle between #4 Sequin (7-5) and #1 Palomita (8-5), two capable and consistent runners with enough tactical speed to factor over Thursday’s abbreviated distance. I’m tempted to give a slight edge to Sequin, who will add blinkers for trainer Wesley Ward. But using both will hopefully guarantee survival in the Single 6.

In Race 8, a 1-mile optional-claiming allowance, I’m keen to play the speedy California shipper #1 Dreams of Valor (9-2), who has a shot to shake loose on an easy lead in his first start for trainer Robertino Diodoro.

The Single 6 concludes with Race 9, a $15,000 maiden claiming race. #1 Monte Ne (7-2) crossed the wire first over this class, track, and distance Nov. 1, only to be disqualified for interfering with a rival at the sixteenth pole. The 85 Brisnet Speed rating he posted tops Thursday’s field, which stamps the son of Bayern as the horse to beat.

If you’re game to single him, you can save a bundle. Otherwise, you might have to hit the “ALL” button, because the remainder of the field looks wide open.

Good luck!