Class and Speed Winning at Keeneland

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Ed DeRosa

October 14th, 2014

The fact that the top Class and Speed Ratings are each showing a flat bet profit at the current Keeneland Race Course meeting, and I am not makes me ashamed to be director of marketing for

These two ratings, along with Prime Power, are—for my money—the three most powerful pieces of data found in the Ultimate Past Performances. Unfortunately, they haven’t gotten enough of my money, as I am down 42% on the meeting despite the best last-out Speed Rating being up 6%, top Class being up 5.5%, and Prime Power down 13%.

The good news is despite the unimpressive -42% ROI, this is a small sample, and I’m only “one away” from turning the tide from red to black. Indeed, I’ve been live to some monster Pick 3s but haven’t gotten that longshot just yet.

The plan for the final two weeks will be to narrow my focus when warranted and not waste money on fringe contenders when there is more value hitting a sequence multiple times. This likely means not betting every sequence, as I did on Thursday, October 9, when I hit all seven Pick 3s and lost money.

That’s a micro approach for the next two weeks at Keeneland, but the macro view is that the last-out Speed Rating is still extremely powerful and often overlooked, and I’m not rah rah enough to think that this is merely a phenomenon. I have little doubt that if other figure makers and ratings providers ran similar numbers (especially in the short term) that their numbers would hold up OK, too.