Complexity single material in Breeders' Cup Friday Pick 4

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

October 30th, 2018

A pair of late Pick 4 wagers is offered on the Breeders' Cup Friday card, one starting in Race 6 and the other Race 7. I will focus on the first which is comprised solely of juvenile races.

Race 6 -- Juvenile Fillies Turf

Just two of the 10 vixens to win the race have come from abroad. Trainer Chad Brown has been responsible four winners of the Juvenile Fillies Turf and he has the favorite this season with the impressive NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (#6) (2-1). Lope De Vega filly has annihilated two fields by a combined 13 lengths, with a daylight tally in the Miss Grillo (G2) in preparation for today. Bay looks imposing to say the least.

JUST WONDERFUL (#4) (6-1) might be the best of the European brigade. Aidan O'Brien pupil bested a nice cast in the Rockfel (G2) last time out and would be a serious player with similar today.

SUMMERING (#12) (15-1) is interesting to me at a number. Tom Proctor trainee was third at a short price last time in a prep run for today, with improvement more than likely. War Front filly might thrive with some give in the ground, too. Jessamine (G2) romper CONCRETE ROSE (#1) (6-1) has done nothing wrong to date for Rusty Arnold. Twirling Candy filly must avoid being buried from the rail slot, though.

Race 7 -- Juvenile Fillies

Ten juvenile fillies will run 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in the second leg. RESTLESS RIDER (#4) (9-2) has impressed me in each of her lifetime runs and will be a single on one of my tickets. McPeek trainee is two-for-two at Churchill Downs which includes an 11-length Debutante score after enduring a nearly awful voyage. Distorted Humor filly aced her two-turn test in the Alcibiades (G1) and looked like a winner every step of the way.

She will have serious competition, though. BELLAFINA (#10) (2-1) has been the dominant filly on the west coast for trainer Simon Callaghan. Daughter of Quality Road smashed four foes in the Chandelier (G1) in advance of the Juvenile Fillies. Spinaway (G1) queen SIPPICAN HARBOR (#8) (12-1), Frizette S. (G1) vixen JAYWALK (#7) (7-2) and SERENGETTI EMPRESS (#2) (7-2), a winner by a combined 32 lengths in her last two, are quite logical.

Race 8 -- Juvenile Turf

An overflow field is entered for a tough turf assignment. Seven of the previous 11 editions of the race have been taken by European imports, and I think the trend will continue. LINE OF DUTY (#5) (10-1) is my top selection. Charlie Appleby trainee has steadily improved in his two-year-old campaign and comes in with a sharp Group 3 tally at Chantilly. Galileo colt gets a fine post slot and regular pilot William Buick will ride.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien is a four-time winner of this race and he will saddle lukewarm morning-line choice ANTHONY VAN DYCK (#14) (4-1). Also a son of Galielo, the Group 2 victor has been going very well since an unplaced debut. Potential one to beat has gone close in a pair of Group 1 tallies of late, but he gets the treacherous 14 post.

Thomas Dascombe's ARTHUR KITT (#1) (20-1) and Group-3 French invader THE BLACK ALBUM (#9) (30-1) are both attracting attention in overseas pools. They each will be inclusions at a big price.

Race 9 -- Juvenile

I think a whole lot of Champagne (G1) star COMPLEXITY (#6) (5-2) and will use him as a single on one of my tickets. Son of Maclean's Music has blitzed both fields he has encountered to date and I think he has a big chance to take this field wire-to-wire.

GAME WINNER (#9) (8-5) has done nothing wrong in compiling a three-for-three mark for Baffert. Candy Ride colt has early foot combined with a fine closing kick, and he displayed both in a superb American Pharoah (G1) romp last out. Champagne second CODE OF HONOR (#11) (5-1) can easily be in the mix late with improvement. He is a must use for those spreading on the ticket.

Brown's STANDARD DEVIATION (#8) (12-1) was an encouraging third at Keeneland and gets blinkers for today's assignment. Curlin colt intrigues if the pace falls apart. Breeders' Futurity (G1) victor KNICKS GO (#10) (30-1) is a tricky read for me. I would rather have him on the ticket than not, especially at a huge price.

50-Cent Pick 4 tickets (Races 6-9):

1,4,6,12 with 4 with 1,5,9,14 with 6,8,9,10,11 = $48
1,4,6,12 with 2,4,7,8,10 with 1,5,9,14 with 6 = $40

(Coglianese Photography)