Current Trends to watch for at Fair Grounds

Profile Picture: John Mucciolo

December 12th, 2020

The exciting meeting kicked off at Fair Grounds on November 26. Below are a few of the things that I have noticed after the first 10 race cards (through Dec. 11) at the New Orleans venue.

Speed on the turf has been holding well

The turf course at Fair Grounds is not a biased one, with winners coming from a forwardly placed position as well as those rallying from well off the early tempo. But seven of the 20 grassy contests have delivered wire-to-wire winners, with three coming in sprints and four in route races. The right horse can win from anywhere, but I recommend paying extra attention to speed types on the lawn.

Prices are customary on the lawn

A low rate of horses going postward as favorites in the turf events have come out on top. Just 10 percent of the outings on the green have resulted in the betting choice coming out victorious. When playing multi-race exotics, I suggest spreading in the legs that are on the sod.

Early Speed on the main oval is good, too

A total of 18 winners have led at every call on the main oval, good for a 34 percent win rate. The main strip was good to front runners early in the meeting, when 14 of the 39 races during opening week delivered a wire-to-wire winner, and the trend has continued. From the 14 most recent dirt races at Fair Grounds, six horses (43 percent) have led at every call on the way to getting their picture taken, with five coming in one-turn contests.

The Multis have been lucrative

Through last Sunday, the average Pick 4 return was in excess of $4,000, while the Pick 5 was more than $12,000 on average. Those numbers were slightly lower through the first two days of this week, but is obviously a good idea to take a swing in these pools if you have conviction in any race or combination of races.