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Homeracing

Deauville the single in TwinSpires.com's Late Pick 4 on Arlington Million Day

Profile Picture: Vance Hanson

August 12th, 2017

You can find my top three selections for all stakes on the Arlington International Festival of Racing card on TwinSpires.com's Arlington Million Betting Guide. While those were submitted shortly after final entries were released on Wednesday and a change in opinion or two shouldn't be unexpected with some new information available in the interim, my TwinSpires.com $300,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4 ticket will be be generally based around those mid-week observations.

Race 9 -- American St. Leger (G3) -- #1 KEYSTONEFORVICTORY (5-2) might very well be a good horse to single given his current form, but his very best race also puts #2 TAGHLEEB (2-1) in the discussion. The latter's performance in the Belmont Gold Cup was enough below par to excuse, and the Arlington H. (G3) simply might have been too short for him.

Race 10 -- Beverly D. (G1) -- To me the most fascinating stakes of the day, as many as at least a half-dozen results wouldn't surprise. #5 GRAND JETE (6-1) hasn't faced this kind before, but trainer Chad Brown's placement here is a potential tip-off on a filly that's demonstrated a strong closing kick in her three U.S. appearances. I'm not quite as high on #10 RAIN GODDESS (5-1) as I was earlier in the week. Her European form lines are obviously strong, but only one three-year-old has ever won this race so it's generally a difficult task. #4 DONA BRUJA (7-2) has looked amazing in her two tries since her importation from Argentina. I'd put her above Rain Goddess in the pecking order in a revised top three, but this is a considerable jump in class for her as well.

Race 11 -- Arlington Million (G1) -- He's far from a slam dunk, but #5 DEAUVILLE (7-2) is the most worthy single in the sequence. Third by a half-length in this race last year as a three-year-old (!), he's considerably improved this term and with strong efforts against the likes of Ribchester and Ulysses, both among the best older horses in England this year.

Race 12 -- Pucker Up (G3) -- Definitely my spread race. In addition to my top three of #5 DONTMESSWITHJOANNE (8-1), #7 LOVELY BERNADETTE (7-2), and #6 SENSITIVE (12-1), I'm also using #2 FAULT (8-1), #3 LIPSTICK CITY (4-1), and #10 HAPPY MESA (5-1).

The Pick 4 is 50-cent minimum, but my $1 ticket is: 1,2 with 4,5,10 with 5 with 2,3,5,6,7,10 = $36.

Brisnet Handicapping products and Free Premium Past Performances for Arlington can be found here.

Good luck!

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