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Homeracing

Delta Jackpot Pick 4

Profile Picture: James Scully

November 21st, 2014

Saturday’s $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot, a 1 1/16-mile race for two-year-olds, is part of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series and anchors a $200,000 guaranteed Delta Downs Jackpot Pick 4. TwinSpires.com players can take advantage of “Hit and Split It’ promotion in which 2 million TwinSpires.com points will be split among account holders who make a winning wager on the Delta Downs Jackpot Pick 4.

I’ll provide an analysis of each race (4th-7th) and suggest a few Pick 4 tickets.

Race 4 -- $150,000 Louisiana Jewel, one-mile for Louisiana-bred two-year-old fillies

A number of fillies like to race up close but there isn’t a preponderance of early speed present. WIND CHILL FACTOR (#5) owns the best BRIS Early Pace numbers, displaying good speed in both starts and figures to be sent by new rider Willie Martinez. Third versus Keeneland allowance foes last time, the daughter of Successful Appeal looks well-spotted for her first attempt against state-breds.

Z SMOKE (#1) turned in a smart performance from the rail last time and could take advantage of the innermost post today (rail wins at a 27 percent clip from 45 one-mile races this meet according to BRIS Ultimate PP’s). A winner in three of her last four, the in-form filly can’t be dismissed on the class hike. Stakes-placed PITCHER (#2) has been plagued by slow starts, but she’s eligible to challenge if she breaks. Maiden winners CASUAL CLASS (#6) and COMPOSED (#7) both merit a look.

Race 5 – $200,000 Treasure Chest, one-mile for fillies and mares

A hot and contested pace is expected. BLUE VIOLET (#5) enters in top form, earning her first stakes tally and a career-high 92 BRIS Speed rating last out, and possesses the right run style. The middle-distance specialist should drop in behind the early leaders before offering her best with Kerwin Clark.

Southern California shipper YAHILWA (#6) appears to be hitting her optimal stride and the speedy filly can’t be dismissed from win consideration. KISS TO REMEMBER (#2) also has something going for her, finishing first or second in her last five starts, and the Tom Amoss trainee should be prominent from the start from her favorable inside draw. SPRING IN THE AIR (#4) has at least a puncher’s chance from off the pace. CLASS INCLUDED (#9) showed little in a pair of starts before heading to the sidelines in June and drew a tough outside post for her turn, but she captured this race by six lengths last year off of a similar layoff.

Race 6 -- $400,000 Delta Downs Princess (G3), one-mile for two-year-old fillies

Take Charge Brandi will take some beating following her wire-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but she’ll get no easy lead with Vivian Da Bling to her outside, a speedball who easily outsprinted Take Charge Brandi to the early advantage in the Adirondack this summer.

TEMPER MINT PATTY (#3) captured her first two starts from just off the pace, registering a 99 BRIS Speed rating for a 13-length win over New York-bred stakes rivals the second time out, but faltered as the odds-on choice last time. The Dale Romans trainee drew well in post 3 and should receive an ideal set-up; she rates a slight edge in the contentious field.

SKIPALUTE (#5) is still winless in four career outings but gained valuable seasoning when making her stakes debut in the October 5 Matron (G2) at Belmont Park, finishing second to Paulasilverlining for the second straight time. The stalker could make her presence felt in the final furlongs. TAKE CHARGE BRANDI (#6) and VIVIAN DA BLING (#7) could compromise each other’s chances but remain serious win contenders.

Race 7 - $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot, 1 1/16 miles for two-year-olds

 

OCHO OCHO OCHO (#10) recorded an impressive win on the Breeders’ Cup Saturday undercard, striding away to a 5 ¾-length decision in an off-the-turf event, and registered a field-best 104 BRIS Speed rating. Unbeaten from two starts, the James Cassidy-trained colt drew the far outside post, but 8 ½-furlong races start from a chute and there is enough ground for him to establish decent positioning by the first turn. I like his chances on the front end.

GOLDEN ACTOR (#6) could be a little overlooked due to his low-profile connections, but his romping victory in the October 25 Jean Lafitte over the track merits serious respect. MR. Z (#3) exits a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the multiple graded stakes runner-up fits well at this level. SARATOGA HEATER (#5) brings improving form into the race for Al Stall Jr. and merits a look at long odds with his speed.

Pick 4 –Ocho Ocho Ocho and Blue Violet are my strongest opinions in the Pick 4 sequence: I’ll key three Pick 4 tickets (all 50-cent plays) around those two runners.

Ticket #1 -- $24

1,2,5
5
3,5,6,7
3,5,6,10

Ticket #2 -- $24

1,2,5
2,4,6,9
3,5,6,7
10

Ticket #3 - $12

6,7
2,5,6
3,5,6,7
10

 

 

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