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Homeracing

DeRosa Tabs Zulu in Fountain of Youth Kentucky Derby Dream Bet

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

February 26th, 2016

Who will get the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (click for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances) is an interesting question because it’s a potential disadvantage based on stats at Gulfstream Park’s current championship meeting.

In 32 races at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, the leader at first call has won exactly zero of those races. No gate-to-wire winners at a route known for favoring speed is more likely an aberration than a scientific bias, but it’s an interesting stat just the same considering all the speed entered into the race.

So who will get the lead? Safe to say it won’t be Fellowship, who is the only horse who’s not an “E” or “E/P” type in the field.

The two “E” types are Golden Ray and Awesome Banner, leaving Zulu, Awesome Speed, and Mohaymen as “E/P” types. On the Quirin Speed scale, the two Awesomes—Banner and Speed—both have 8 points, which leads me to tab Awesome Banner as the likely pace setter as the field’s lone “E8”.

My Kentucky Derby Dream Bet qualifying round win wager is on #2 Zulu. Vance, Jennifer, and I are still looking to qualify while both James and Kellie punched their tickets last week by selecting Gun Runner in the Risen Star Stakes.

Zulu is one of many in here with 90+ early pace ratings but one of only three horses with a triple digit late pace rating. Obvious closer Fellowship and favorite Mohaymen are the others, but neither did so following 90+ pace ratings.

I like Zulu to get first run on the leaders and outsprint Mohaymen to the wire with Fellowship passing the others for third.

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