Homeracing

DeRosa’s Belmont Stakes Pick and Longshot

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

June 10th, 2016

The Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) left no doubt who the best three-year-olds in the Triple Crown series are – respective winners Nyquist and Exaggerator (#11, 9-5).

And since only Exaggerator (who was second to Nyquist in the Derby) is in the Belmont Stakes (G1), he is the top pick as the most likely winner.

The question is if he’s the best bet. I have his fair odds at 6- 5 and wouldn’t mind leaning on him heavily at 3- 2 or better. If we don’t get that, then Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Destin (#2, 6-1) or U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) winner Lani (#10, 20-1) might offer the best value.

Ironically, they were my two most likely losers in the Kentucky Derby, but the reasons for that had more to do with their preparation for the Derby than their talent. Those issues are not in play for the Belmont Stakes, and Destin entices at better than 6-1 while Lani would be a play for me at 15-1 or better.

I’ll box all three in exactas and play the tri for two of the three to hit the board. 

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