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Homeracing

Doug Salvatore Breeders' Cup Friday Juvenile Picks

Profile Picture: Ed DeRosa

Ed DeRosa

October 31st, 2014

We've been on hiatus from handicapping juvenile races since a lovely 3-for-3 day with all top pick winners at Keeneland on October 4th. The Juvenile racing blog is back for the Breeders' Cup and we will try to navigate through a couple of treacherous turf races. 

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf:

Remarkably, Wesley Ward trains four different Morning Line favorites in Breeders' Cup races this year.

Juvenile Turf: Hootenanny 

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Sunset Glow

Filly and Mare Sprint: Judy The Beauty 

Turf Sprint: No Nay Never

Reportedly, however, Wesley Ward will be a no-show. According to Graham Cunningham of UK's Channel 4's racing "Ward is staying home to watch his teenage son perform in the state senior high school cross country championships." 

As Cunningham also noted: "where do we get a bet down on this cross country slog? The youthful Ward is surely five star lock material if his dad is so keen to be on hand to watch him!"

With that interesting but probably inconsequential sidenote out of the way, I never liked Hootenanny's chances to begin with. He's reportedly been soundly outworked by Juvenile Fillies Turf entrant Sunset Glow. What's more, Hootenanny has never raced past six furlongs in distance, and is a need-the-lead type in a race where he's sure to encounter pace pressure. 

My top selection is the 20/1 Morning Line European raider Faithful Creek. In his most recent start, he hooked a highly promising Aidan O'Brien horse named John F Kennedy, who is currently the future book favorite for the Epsom Derby. Faithful Creek tracked the early pace in that race, and took over the lead with an aggressive early move, before proving no match at all for the extremely highly regarded John F Kennedy. 

This experienced colt has excellent foundation after the experience of six European starts. He adds blinkers and lasix today, and should prove a serious contender if he's able to carve out a good trip from his tough, extreme outside post position draw.   

The other European horse I like in the race is also overlooked on the Morning Line, that's the gelding Wet Sail who is 15/1. He ran a good third in a very tough sprint race last time out. The son of Henrythenavigator is bred well for added ground and has reportedly made an excellent appearance at Santa Anita, acclimating well. 

Selections:

1st Faithful Creek 

2nd Wet Sail

3rd Daddy DT

4th Lawn Ranger

Juvenile Fillies Turf:

Morning Line favorite Sunset Glow has reportedly outworked Hootenanny, the aforementioned favorite of the boys race. This filly debuted at Presque Isle Downs in May, and it was a memorable debut as her jockey that day was seven pounds overweight, and got her stone-cold left in the gate at the start. She caught the eye just to run second that day, and has been quite impressive ever since, including a Grade 1 win in the Del Mar Debutante last time out, at odds-on favoritism.

While Sunset Glow's chances must be respected, I'm looking to oppose her today. In fact, I'm looking to oppose her with another filly who made an eye catching debut at Presque Isle Downs. That filly is 20/1 morning line Quality Rocks. After two impressive starts on synthetic, Quality Rocks made her turf debut in the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland last time out. She was restrained off of a suicidal early pace, and ran extremely well to be second. The cutback to a mile today will suit her, and so will the previous grass route experience. She's value and has a good shot if Jose Lezcano is able to work out a trip for her.

15/1 Morning Line Partisan Politics is a horse who has yet to flash serious promise, but she was hindered by a tough trip behind a brutally slow pace in a sneaky good fourth place effort in the Miss Grillo last time out. One of four Chad Brown trained entrants in the race, she's the one flying under the radar and could be dangerous if Javier Castellano is able to work out a trip for her.

Selections: 

1st: Quality Rocks

2nd: Partisan Politics 

3rd: Sivoliere

4th: Sunset Glow

 

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