Dueling Kentucky Derby Future Wagers Offer Tremendous Opportunity

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Ed DeRosa

November 24th, 2015

One of the most unique—and thus hopefully exploitable—wagering opportunities I’ve ever seen occurs this weekend when Churchill Downs rolls out its traditional Kentucky Derby future wager alongside a new offering: the Kentucky Derby-winning sire future wager.

Each pool offers 23 individual interests plus the #24 field covering all other outcomes. Both pools offer win & exacta wagering with betting beginning at noon ET on Thursday (Thanksgiving), November 26, and concluding at 6 p.m. on Sunday, November 29.

For FREE past performances of the named male progeny of all 23 individual sires, CLICK HERE. For FREE Ultimate PPs of the 23 individual horses in the traditional future wager, CLICK HERE.

A simple glance at the 23 individual horses, their sires, and the corresponding morning line odds reveals immediate opportunities such as Nyquist being the 10-to-1 top choice among individual entrants in his pool while his sire, champion Uncle Mo, is the co-third choice at 20-to-1.

You would have to be a complete idiot to bet Nyquist at 10-to-1 instead of Uncle Mo at 20-to-1.

And what of Tapit? The top sire by stud fee at $300,000 is the 15-to-1 co-favorite (along with American Pharoah’s sire Pioneerof The Nile) despite one of his progeny, Mohaymen, being that same price in the individual pool with two other horses representing him as well: Conquest Big E and Synchrony. At their morning line prices of 50- and 30-to-1, respectively, just this trio alone represents odds of about 10-to-1 for Tapit to win the Derby, but you can get these three and everyone else (including Zenyatta’s second foal Ziconic) for at least that price!

Speaking of Pioneerof The Nile, he’s co favored because of his celebrity, but he’s tough to take at 50-to-1 let alone 15-to-1. Through Monday, November 23, Wynn Las Vegas listed 317 two-year-olds on its Kentucky Derby future wager and only one of them, the New York-bred stakes-placed maiden winner Championofthenile at 125-to-1, is by Pioneerof The Nile.

And finally there are the field options to consider. In the individual pool, the field covers all 2013 foals not among the 23 betting interests. In the sire pool the field covers all 2013 foals less the about-1,900 foals sired by the 23 individual betting interests.

The field in the individual wager is 7-to-5; the field in the sire wager is even money.

Eleven of the 23 individual wagering interests are part of the field in the sire wager: #1 Airoforce (Colonel John), #4 Cocked And Loaded (Colonel John), #6 Drefong (Gio Ponti), #8 Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat), #9 Gift Box (Twirling Candy), #12 Matt King Cole (Cool Coal Man), #16 Rated R Superstar (Kodiak Kowboy), #17 Riker (Include), #19 Sunny Ridge (Holy Bull), #20 Swipe (Birdstone), and #22 Toews On Ice (Archarcharch). Those horses alone based on morning line price (and accounting for takeout) add up to a 2-to-1 chance that one of them wins the Derby, so it doesn’t take much of a stretch to get to even money as value (10 other horses at 100-to-1 odds & 5 more at 200-to-1 would get you there).

Going back to the Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby odds gives us additional confidence in the field for the sire future wager. Of the Wynn’s 317 wagering interests, 110 (34.7%) are by sires listed in the future wager. Taking the odds of winning the Derby and turning them into a percentage chance (e.g. 19-to-1 odds is a 5% chance), the 317 horses add up to 212.42% (that’s some takeout), and the 110 horses by the individual sires adds up to 100.81%. So the sires are 34.7% of the horses on the list but represent 47.45% of the action, which means the remaining horses have a 52.55% chance or fair odds of about 9-to-10.

I can’t take that short a price on this type of wager, but I’m absolutely a buyer at 3-to-2, and depending on the will pays will happily look to wheel the field on top and underneath all others.