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Homeracing

Ed DeRosa's Keeneland Saturday Stakes Picks

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Ed DeRosa

October 4th, 2014

Keeneland FallStars Weekend features nine graded stakes, and five of them make up half the Saturday card with the upcoming Woodford Stakes kicking off the quintet.

Depending on the results it’s either fortunate or unfortunate placement for me outside either of the late Pick 4s or the Pick 5 because #10 Marchman is my best bet of the day and a single for in the three rolling Pick 3s that involve him.

Not all is lost on the lone “A” front, as four of the five Pick 5 races have just one horse in that column (it’s not listed because it’s not a stakes, but #7 Enchantress in the nightcap is a lone “A” with #s 4, 9, 11, 12 underneath).

In the TCA, I preferred #3 R Free Roll to Stonetastic just liking the inside draw but still slightly off the rail. They’re probably more an “A-“/”B+” vibe, though

In the First Lady, I think trainer Chad Brown is ready to click w/ his turf distaffers, and Stephanie’s Kitten last week will give way to Dayatthespa today. I can’t ignore the speed of either Discreet Marq or Istanford. Maybe they burn each other out (which I think sets up for Dayatthespa), but either is capable of getting brave. Filimbi I upgraded based on a solid Bruno With the Works Report.

The Claiborne Futurity will be a pretty even board, and I never like to use too many in those cases because while you think a $10 horse is good, when everyone is going 4 or 5 deep in the same race with the same horses, it plays much lower (especially since I like Wise Dan in the next). So the favorite I’m chucking is Carpe Diem, and I’ll lean on the three “A” picks with Mr. Z at 12-to-1 maybe adding some spice.

My thought on Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile is we already know he’s better than these. The “has he last a step” question is legitimate with any seven-year-old odds on horse, but I think he’s on his “A” game, and at equal weights he can put these away. From a wagering standpoint, I’d rather beat Seek Again underneath than Wise Dan on top.

BUT the good thing about being willing to lean on a Dayatthespa or Enchantress is I can definitely play a backup ticket against Wise Dan, and as I said, I prefer others to Seek Again, who I don’t think will spice up will pays commiserate to his win odds (i.e., if you like Seek Again he’s either a single and/or a win bet—not the type of horse you want to use on a deep ticket).

Good luck!

ALL-STAKES ABC grid

Race

A

B

C

5

10

5, 6

1, 3, 4

6

3

5

2, 7

7

7

1, 6, 8

 

8

6, 7, 10

4

5, 8, 9, 11, 12

9

6

3

1, 4, 5, 8

 

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