El Camino a Real SHOWdown Test
It’s a tale of two weeks on the SHOWdown front as last week’s Withers and Lewis Stakes provided little drama in the way of most people advancing with favorites El Kabeir and Classy Class finishing second and third, respectively in the Withers, and top choices Dortmund and Firing Line completing the exacta in the Lewis.
Whereas each pair had more than 80% of the show pool in their respective races, you’ll probably need half the field to make up that much of the El Camino show pool, so attrition is likely among 1,317 still alive for the $1-million on TwinSpires.com, the 49 still alive for $500 in our #TSshowdown competition, and the 11 still alive among #teamTS & #teamCD in the $1,000 friendly rivalry charity competition.
Even if you’re not alive for the $1-million or the $500, there’s plenty of reason to play, as everyone is still alive for the $10,000 consolation pool for hitting the Kentucky Derby, and we’re giving away $20/week on Twitter.
And oh yeah: There’s a Facebook contest, too! We’re giving away up to $100 each week plus an iPad for the person with the most correct show horses through the Kentucky Derby!
Alright, that’s a lot of ways to win something, but there are eight ways to lose: either don’t participate at all or pick one of the seven horses who don’t finish first, second, or third!
We’ll try to avoid that scourge by picking #10 Mischief Clem, who is on the outside, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue based on the At A Glance stats found in each edition of the Brisnet.com The Handicapper’s Edge.
But as I said, this race is no gimme. Danny Zucker can be heard in the Brisnet.com-Predicteform.com Podcast below extolling the virtues of Conquest Typhoon. James Scully, meanwhile, is on Soul Driver, and Frank Angst touted me on Indianaughty. Four people and four different picks means (assuming no dead heat) at least one of us won’t even have his pick hit the board. And that doesn’t even factor Metaboss, the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained trio of Cross the Line, Stand and Salute, and Harmonic, or Ernest Shackleton shipping north for Doug O’Neill
There’s no safety net when it comes to trying to win the $1-million in SHOWdown (or in my case, last longest), so regardless of what happens earlier in the day I’ll have at least a lot of pride on the line in the El Camino, but I would like to be sitting on a decent nest egg from the Gulfstream Park stakes double of the Hurricane Bertie and Cooper City.
I’m betting Paco Lopez to get the job done in both races with More Than a Party on the rail boasting a huge last-out Speed Rating edge in the Hurricane Bertie, and I’m Already Sexy in the Cooper City as the horse who is consistently faster than her foes.
Closing out my day will be the Cincinnati Trophy Stakes at Turfway Park where three-year-old fillies will sprint, and I give the edge to Bossy, who I expect to sit the trip behind the inside speed and get the jump on those who started to her outside. Florent Geroux flying in for the return mount gives me confidence at 9-to-2.
Good luck, and we hope to see everyone on Monday live to the million (or in my case still alive).