Ellis Park Derby Tip Sheet

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August 7th, 2020

The $200,000 Ellis Park Derby will be run Sunday as race 10 at Ellis Park.  The 1 1/8-mile race is for 3-year-olds and is part of the 2020 Road to the Kentucky Derby series with 50-20-10-5 points going to the top four finishers.

Top Picks for the Ellis Park Derby

  • #4 Art Collector
  • #12 Shared Sense
  • #2 Anneau d’Or
  • #6 Little Menace

Betting the Ellis Park Derby

  • $30 exacta - 4 with 12
  • $10 exacta - 4 with 2, 6

Ellis Park Derby Contenders

#1 Trident Hit rallied from way back to break his maiden by a nose at 41-1 in his career debut going 7 furlongs then was an even second going two turns. He adds blinkers today but will have to improve 10+ Speed rating points to have a chance with these.

#2 Anneau d’Or scratched out of the Shared Belief S. last week at Del Mar for this. He ran well last year as a 2-year-old. This year, not so much. He started the season with two terrible efforts then was fourth in a strong renewal of the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This is an easier spot than the Del Mar race, but he needs a trip from the inside post.

#3 Sprawl was a good winner two starts back going two turns at Churchill Downs then raced evenly last out going this distance in the Ohio Derby (G3). Son of City Zip finishes his races strong, but he will have to take it up a notch.

#4 Art Collector has improved as the races got longer which is not surprise being a son of Bernardini out of a mare by Distorted Humor. He finished first in his last three starts and ran down a very game filly last out in the Blue Grass (G2) over a speed-favoring main track. The big field should help him since has plenty of gate speed to stay out of trouble and if runs back to his last two starts, he wins this.    

#5 Necker Island was claimed for an amazing $100K two starts back and almost made it worth it when he was a good third in the Indiana Derby (G3) last out. He will need to get away cleanly this time but if he runs back to his last start for Chris Hartman (28% second start off the claim), he could be a factor.   

#6 Little Menace began his career with five straight sprints but stretched out to two turns in a stakes race at Lone Star last out and went gate to wire. Speedy son of Into Mischief could be dangerous if he shakes loose on the lead with Martin Garcia.

#7 Truculent was badly outrun in last year’s Champagne (G1) going a one-turn mile, but he bounced back with a sharp maiden win at the Fair Grounds going two turns. Off for seven months, he raced evenly here on the turf and returns to the dirt with blinkers added.

#8 Rowdy Yates has the advantage of a stakes win here going 7 furlongs last year. He has won three minor stakes races going two turns since then and was a decent fourth in Saudi Arabia. Last out in the Ohio Derby, he weakened late after dueling for the lead. Shaun Bridgmohan should fit him since he rides quietly in the irons.

#9 Dean Martini was claimed for $50K out of a maiden win going two turns at Churchill Downs. He came back with a good second there going 9 furlongs then won the Ohio Derby in a stalking trip. That win earned him a career-best Speed rating, but he will have to improve even more in here.

#10 Attachment Rate is still eligible for first-level allowance ranks and his last two starts against graded-stakes foes give no indication that he will be able to handle these from post 10. Dale Romans is always dangerous no matter what the price but his only realistic chance is a sloppy track.

#11 Winning Impression beat allowance foes, but was taken down on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park then was outrun in a division of the Arkansas Derby (G1). Last out, he lost all chance after a rough start in the Indiana Derby and will need a wet track to have any chance from post 11.

#12 Shared Sense has improved since stretching out in distance and his win in the Indiana Derby was very good. If he can run back to that effort, he has a chance but the post will be almost impossible.